{"id":30124,"date":"2026-03-11T22:02:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T22:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ingden-tukker-ve-schroeder-euro-bolgesi-faizleri-enerjiye-bagli-piyasa-ecbnin-2026da-faiz-artirimi-yapacagini-fiyatliyor-gorunum-belirsiz\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T22:02:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T22:02:52","slug":"ingden-tukker-ve-schroeder-euro-bolgesi-faizleri-enerjiye-bagli-piyasa-ecbnin-2026da-faiz-artirimi-yapacagini-fiyatliyor-gorunum-belirsiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ingden-tukker-ve-schroeder-euro-bolgesi-faizleri-enerjiye-bagli-piyasa-ecbnin-2026da-faiz-artirimi-yapacagini-fiyatliyor-gorunum-belirsiz\/","title":{"rendered":"ING\u2019den Tukker ve Schroeder: Euro b\u00f6lgesi faizleri enerjiye ba\u011fl\u0131; piyasa ECB\u2019nin 2026\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirsiz"},"content":{"rendered":"Euro faizleri enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 hassas. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Enerji maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, bu art\u0131\u015f beklentisini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker.\n\nEnerji fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerse, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizler mevcut seviyelerine yak\u0131n kalabilir. Bu senaryo, enerji ucuzlad\u0131k\u00e7a enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.\n\nEnerji fiyatlar\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, etki b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olur. Enerjinin h\u0131zla y\u00fckselip aylarca y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda, ECB faiz art\u0131rmaya itilebilir; bu da ilk etapta euro swap e\u011frisini (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki swap faizlerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu getiri \u00e7izgisi) yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r.\n\nArd\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi ekonomiyi yava\u015flatan ad\u0131mlar) b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Piyasalar, ilk enflasyon \u015fokundan sonra daha gev\u015fek politikay\u0131 (ileride faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131) fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayabilir; bu da daha uzun vadeli faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.\n\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz bitmeye yak\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Hisseler y\u00fckseldi, ancak VIX endeksi (ABD borsalar\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBundan sonra faizlere ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz tamamen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131. ECB\u2019nin bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa enflasyon verisine \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131; \u00f6zellikle \u015eubat 2026 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalan enflasyon) inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in. Bu gergin tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 yol olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nEnerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ek bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle\u2014ECB faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enerji maliyetleri gerileyince merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve benzer bir dinami\u011fin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu senaryo, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri destekler; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swapta \u201creceiver\u201d (sabit faiz alma, de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) almak.\n\nDi\u011fer yandan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r ve Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunursa tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale gelir. \u0130lk etki, artan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmaya zorlanmas\u0131 olabilir; bu da swap e\u011frisinin tamam\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iter. Ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI verileri (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) \u015fimdiden 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda zay\u0131flama sinyali verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu durum b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ciddi bi\u00e7imde bozar.\n\nBu \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi) riski, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sindirirken bile daha ileride faiz indirimlerini h\u0131zla fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu da getiri e\u011frisinin yatayla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 (uzun vadeli faizlerin k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerden daha fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fark\u0131n daralmas\u0131) y\u00f6nde pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. VIX endeksinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor ve yava\u015flayan ekonomi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Euro faizleri enerjiye kilitlendi: D\u00fc\u015fen enerji, 2026 ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini siler, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 indirir. Kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek petrol stagflasyon korkusuyla e\u011friyi \u00f6nce yukar\u0131, sonra yatayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p uzunlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30124\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}