{"id":30119,"date":"2026-03-11T21:02:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T21:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-raporu-subat-abd-tufe-beklentileri-karsiladi-cekirdek-ve-super-cekirdek-enflasyon-ise-ocaktaki-tarife-kaynakli-sicramaya-kiyasla-sogudu\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T21:02:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T21:02:37","slug":"td-securities-raporu-subat-abd-tufe-beklentileri-karsiladi-cekirdek-ve-super-cekirdek-enflasyon-ise-ocaktaki-tarife-kaynakli-sicramaya-kiyasla-sogudu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-raporu-subat-abd-tufe-beklentileri-karsiladi-cekirdek-ve-super-cekirdek-enflasyon-ise-ocaktaki-tarife-kaynakli-sicramaya-kiyasla-sogudu\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities raporu: \u015eubat ABD T\u00dcFE beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek ve \u201cs\u00fcper \u00e7ekirdek\u201d enflasyon ise Ocak\u2019taki tarife kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramaya k\u0131yasla so\u011fudu"},"content":{"rendered":"\u015eubat ay\u0131nda ABD T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) beklentilere paralel geldi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonda (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u201cs\u00fcper \u00e7ekirdek\u201d enflasyon (hizmet enflasyonu gibi daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan dar kapsaml\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6sterge) Ocak ay\u0131ndaki tarifelerden (ithalat vergileri) kaynakl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan so\u011fudu. T\u00dcFE s\u00fcper \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Ocak\u2019taki %0,59\u2019dan \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,35\u2019e indi.\n\nTD Securities, \u015eubat i\u00e7in PCE s\u00fcper \u00e7ekirde\u011fini (Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi PCE fiyat endeksinde s\u00fcper \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6sterge) %0,28, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019yi (PCE\u2019de enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7) ayl\u0131k %0,31 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Notta, tarifelerin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n (ithalat vergilerinin son t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fi) Ocak ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nRapora g\u00f6re petrol kaynakl\u0131 enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon verilerine yans\u0131yacak. Mart T\u00dcFE\u2019de enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek gelmesi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun (y\u0131l baz\u0131nda) %3\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nEnerji enflasyonu art\u0131\u015f\u0131, benzin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle ili\u015fkilendirildi. \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Mart\u2019ta ek bir art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizlerinin (uzun vadeli devlet tahvili getirisi) y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar yatay bir bantta kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ran\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bant \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen aral\u0131k %4,0\u2013%4,3.\n\n<h3>Faiz Stratejisi<\/h3>\nFed\u2019in sabr\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fed yetkililerinin son konu\u015fmalar\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha dengeli beklentiden belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.\n\nBu nedenle, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l i\u015flemlerde belirleyici olan %4,0\u2013%4,3 band\u0131 art\u0131k \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olmayabilir. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,45 seviyesindeyken geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m yapma stratejisi daha riskli hale geldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha y\u00fcksek faiz senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures) \u00fczerine opsiyonlar (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nReel faizlerin (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) nominal faizlere (enflasyon ar\u0131nd\u0131rmas\u0131 yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f faiz) g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc korunuyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri, TIPS\u2019e (enflasyona endeksli ABD Hazine tahvilleri) ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Faiz piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artarken, faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde straddle\/strangle stratejileri (opsiyonlarda ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kombinasyonlar\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler) daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nEnerji ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor. WTI t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) fiyatlar\u0131 2025\u2019teki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra dengelense de y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; bu hafta 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum enflasyonu beslemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) veya vadeli i\u015flemlerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon) fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD enflasyonu s\u00fcrpriz yapmad\u0131 ama enerji riski geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: \u015eubat\u2019ta s\u00fcper \u00e7ekirdek so\u011fudu. Tarifelerin etkisi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Mart\u2019ta enerjiyle T\u00dcFE %3\u2019e yakla\u015fabilir; Fed \u015fahin, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131kta daha y\u00fcksek faiz senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30119\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}