{"id":30116,"date":"2026-03-11T20:09:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T20:09:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-wti-120-dolarlik-zirveden-geri-cekildi-ancak-korfezde-uretim-kesintileri-ve-sinirli-yeniden-yonlendirme-kapasitesi-fiyatlari-desteklemeyi-surduruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T20:09:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T20:09:35","slug":"rabobank-wti-120-dolarlik-zirveden-geri-cekildi-ancak-korfezde-uretim-kesintileri-ve-sinirli-yeniden-yonlendirme-kapasitesi-fiyatlari-desteklemeyi-surduruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-wti-120-dolarlik-zirveden-geri-cekildi-ancak-korfezde-uretim-kesintileri-ve-sinirli-yeniden-yonlendirme-kapasitesi-fiyatlari-desteklemeyi-surduruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank: WTI 120 dolarl\u0131k zirveden geri \u00e7ekildi, ancak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u00fcretim kesintileri ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yeniden y\u00f6nlendirme kapasitesi fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI, 120 dolar civar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi ancak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u00fcretimin azalmas\u0131 ve sevkiyatlar\u0131 ba\u015fka rotalara \u00e7evirme kapasitesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle destek buluyor. Rabobank, petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak geri d\u00f6nmesiyle arz ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde gev\u015femesini bekliyor.\n\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131 nedeniyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 14 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn (b\/d: g\u00fcnde varil) arz\u0131n piyasaya ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck Suudi arz\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki Yanbu\u2019ya kayd\u0131r\u0131labilir; BAE\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz\u0131 ise Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131 baypas edip (kullanmay\u0131p) Fuceyre\u2019de (Fujairah) y\u00fcklenebilir.\n\n

Stratejik Rezerv Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/h3>\nG-7 \u00fclkeleri ile \u00c7in, etkileri azaltmak i\u00e7in stratejik petrol rezervlerinden ham petrol piyasaya s\u00fcrebilir. Bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kesintinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dengelemesi bekleniyor, ancak uzun s\u00fcren bir kesintiyi tamamen kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 zor.\n\nRabobank, WTI\u2019\u0131n 2026 2\u00c7\u2019de (Q2: ikinci \u00e7eyrek) ortalama 83 dolar\/varil, 2026 3\u00c7\u2019de 80 dolar\/varil ve 2026 4\u00c7\u2019de 78 dolar\/varil olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2027 i\u00e7in 72 dolar\/varil tahmin ediyor.\n\nWTI ham petrol\u00fcn 120 dolar civar\u0131ndaki son zirveden geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle piyasa devam eden arz \u015fokunu (ani ve sert arz kesintisi) sindiriyor. Suudi Arabistan ve BAE\u2019nin rota de\u011fi\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131 hesaba kat\u0131lsa bile yakla\u015f\u0131k 7,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn arz\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu temel s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k (arz\u0131n talebe g\u00f6re yetersiz kalmas\u0131), yak\u0131n vadede fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nG7 \u00fclkeleri ve \u00c7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda stratejik rezervlerden koordineli \u015fekilde 100 milyon varil petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor ve en yak\u0131n vadeli kontrat\u0131 (front-month: teslim tarihi en yak\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) 80\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131na \u00e7ekti; ancak uzun s\u00fcrecek bir kesintiye kar\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir tampon. Bu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, orta vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini (bullish yap\u0131: fiyatlar\u0131n genel olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi) de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyecek k\u0131sa vadeli bir arz kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.\n\n

Opsiyonlar ve Vade E\u011frisi Pozisyonlama<\/h3>\nZ\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; OVX endeksi (petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) ilk panikte 70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 45 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu seviye, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fczeylerin iki kat\u0131ndan fazla. Bu y\u00fcksek prim, fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in opsiyon satmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nPiyasa belirgin bir backwardation i\u00e7inde (backwardation: yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n ileri vadeli fiyatlardan daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131). Yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar, 2026 sonu ve sonras\u0131na g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlan\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131klanan SPR varilleri (SPR: stratejik petrol rezervi) spot piyasaya (hemen teslim piyasas\u0131) girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a bu yap\u0131dan takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spread: farkl\u0131 vadelerde ayn\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat fark\u0131 \u00fczerine pozisyon) ile yararlanma f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, e\u011frinin \u00f6n taraf\u0131n\u0131 (yak\u0131n vadeler) ileri vadelerden daha fazla bask\u0131layabilir.\n\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 80 dolara do\u011fru kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar kurmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Put spread almak (put spread: bir put opsiyonu al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put opsiyonu satmak), \u00f6rne\u011fin Haziran 80 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p Haziran 75 dolar put satmak, beklenen yava\u015f gerilemeye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu, bu kadar oynak bir ortamda do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyona (outright short: tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) g\u00f6re daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.\n\nGeriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu durum, 2019\u2019daki Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lardan daha a\u011f\u0131r; ancak piyasa tepkisi benzer: \u00f6nce a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki, ard\u0131ndan kademeli normalle\u015fme. Tarih, jeopolitik risk priminin (fiyata eklenen belirsizlik primi) kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini, ancak panikle gelen s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinin zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Fiyatlar\u0131n, ikinci \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar ortalamas\u0131na do\u011fru kontroll\u00fc \u015fekilde gev\u015femesini bekliyoruz.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WTI 120 dolardan geri \u00e7ekilse de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foku fiyatlara taban oluyor. G7-\u00c7in SPR sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Rabobank, ak\u0131\u015flar d\u00f6n\u00fcnce gev\u015feme ve 2026\u2019da 83-78, 2027\u2019de 72 dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30116\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}