{"id":30114,"date":"2026-03-11T20:07:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T20:07:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abn-amro-ekonomistleri-iran-kaynakli-petrol-ve-dogalgaz-fiyat-artislari-euro-bolgesi-buyumesini-abd-buyumesinden-daha-fazla-zayiflatir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T20:07:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T20:07:33","slug":"abn-amro-ekonomistleri-iran-kaynakli-petrol-ve-dogalgaz-fiyat-artislari-euro-bolgesi-buyumesini-abd-buyumesinden-daha-fazla-zayiflatir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abn-amro-ekonomistleri-iran-kaynakli-petrol-ve-dogalgaz-fiyat-artislari-euro-bolgesi-buyumesini-abd-buyumesinden-daha-fazla-zayiflatir\/","title":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO ekonomistleri: \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden daha fazla zay\u0131flat\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO ekonomistleri, \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha fazla bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bunun nedenini Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n **sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn (reel gelir, yani enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gelir)** daha zay\u0131f olmas\u0131 ve **g\u00fcvenin** daha kolay bozulmas\u0131 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yorlar.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131n\u0131n bir di\u011fer nedeni, b\u00f6lgenin **net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131** olmas\u0131. Yani enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince ABD gibi \u00fcretici \u00fclkeler kadar ekonomik faaliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 elde edemiyor. Yazarlar, daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir senaryoda bile, son enerji krizindeki gibi ekonominin **5 \u00e7eyrek (yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 ay) durgun** kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir tekrar beklemiyor.\n\n<h3>Eurozone Inflation Risk In Focus<\/h3>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme riskinden \u00e7ok **enflasyon riskinin** \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar; \u00f6zellikle \u015fok uzarsa. Daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 senaryolarda, enflasyonun k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli y\u00fckselmesini ve **ikinci tur etkilerin** s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar (**ikinci tur etki: enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcn\/hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na yay\u0131l\u0131p kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi**).\n\nDaha olumlu senaryoda, ECB\u2019nin enerji enflasyonundaki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini bekliyorlar. Orta senaryoda ise bir \u201csigorta\u201d niteli\u011finde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyorlar; muhtemelen 30 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda (**\u201csigorta\u201d faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131: riskleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6nleyici art\u0131\u015f**).\n\nDaha k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda, bunun ard\u0131ndan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na yay\u0131lmay\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha gelebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Makale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fini ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fini not ediyor.\n\n<h3>Market Implications For ECB Policy<\/h3>\nBug\u00fcnk\u00fc tablo da benzerle\u015fiyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 son iki ayda %15 y\u00fckselterek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 98 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi **net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131** olmaya devam ediyor; son Eurostat verilerine g\u00f6re enerji h\u00e2l\u00e2 toplam ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu yap\u0131, ekonomiyi enerji fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na ABD\u2019den daha hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD **net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131** (**net ihracat\u00e7\u0131: \u00fcretti\u011fi ihracat, ithal etti\u011finden fazla**).\n\nBu kez **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** %2,7\u2019de y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in (**\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon**) ikinci tur enflasyon etkisi riski daha y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi bu enerji \u015fokunu \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmesi\u201d beklenmemeli. Ana kayg\u0131, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin \u00fccret taleplerine ve daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 hizmet fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek olacak.\n\n**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in (**t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri faiz, kur, emtia gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler**) bu, piyasan\u0131n ECB\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir de\u011fi\u015fim ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor (**\u015fahin: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya daha istekli**). **Faiz swaplar\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131)** yaz boyunca politika faizinin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015fa oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 yarat\u0131yor (**faiz swap\u0131: taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme**). \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazand\u0131racak **EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131** tarihsel \u00f6rnek ve mevcut enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor (**vadeli i\u015flem: ileri tarihli fiyat \u00fczerinden al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi; opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131**).\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, euro i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli. Beklenmedik bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya da olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 euronun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7abilir (**g\u00fcvercin: faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaya daha e\u011filimli**). EUR\/USD veya EUR\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir; olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert harekete kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in **al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call)** kullan\u0131labilir (**uzun pozisyon: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 beklentisi; call opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131**).\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 z\u0131plat\u0131rken ABN AMRO\u2019ya g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ABD\u2019den fazla bask\u0131 g\u00f6recek. Net enerji ithalat\u0131 ve zay\u0131f gelir g\u00fcveni k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Enflasyon\/ikinci tur riskleri ECB\u2019yi daha \u015fahinle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}