{"id":30109,"date":"2026-03-11T20:03:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T20:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufgden-derek-halpenny-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-%50lik-sicramanin-dolara-neredeyse-hic-destek-vermedigini-eur-usdnin-yalnizca-17-geriledigini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T20:03:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T20:03:58","slug":"mufgden-derek-halpenny-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-%50lik-sicramanin-dolara-neredeyse-hic-destek-vermedigini-eur-usdnin-yalnizca-17-geriledigini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufgden-derek-halpenny-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-%50lik-sicramanin-dolara-neredeyse-hic-destek-vermedigini-eur-usdnin-yalnizca-17-geriledigini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\u2019den Derek Halpenny, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki %50\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n dolara neredeyse hi\u00e7 destek vermedi\u011fini, EUR\/USD\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca %1,7 geriledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve ham petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki ilk etapta %50\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ra\u011fmen, baz\u0131 istatistiksel tahmin modellerinin (regresyon modeli: ge\u00e7mi\u015f verilerden ili\u015fki kurup etkiyi hesaplayan y\u00f6ntem) i\u015faret etti\u011finden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Ham petroldeki %10\u2019luk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n EUR\/USD paritesinde %0,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da %50\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fta yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyordu.\n\nHam petrol daha sonra geri \u00e7ekildi (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi), bu geri \u00e7ekilme hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda net hareketin modele daha uygun oldu\u011fu belirtildi. 27 \u015eubat kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re ham petrol %22 y\u00fckselirken, EUR\/USD %1,7 geriledi.\n\n

Euro \u0130\u00e7in Politika Deste\u011fi<\/h3>\nAvrupal\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, yeni bir enerji fiyat \u015fokuna d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tolerans g\u00f6sterdiklerini belirtti; bu da EUR\/USD\u2019de ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin 2022\u201323 d\u00f6nemindeki enerji fiyat \u015fokunun tekrarlanmas\u0131na izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u015foklar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamada daha iyi konumda oldu\u011funu da vurgulad\u0131.\n\nECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi Peter Kazimir, ECB\u2019den bir \u201ctepkinin\u201d piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha erken gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Nisan veya Haziran hakk\u0131nda spek\u00fclasyon yapmak istemedi\u011fini belirtti.\n\nABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n, son Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi sonras\u0131 modellerimizin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha az g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. WTI tipi ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 dolardan 120 dolara kadar k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli %50 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131ktan sonra 98 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. Bu k\u0131smi geri \u00e7ekilme, EUR\/USD\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,7 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor; bu, ilk endi\u015felere g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir hareket.\n\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, enerji kaynakl\u0131 yeni bir fiyat \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde rahats\u0131zl\u0131k sinyali veriyor. Lagarde ve Konsey \u00fcyesi Kazimir\u2019in son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha yak\u0131n zamanda bir politika tepkisi gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f (\u015fahin: faiz indirimine kapal\u0131, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye \u00f6ncelik veren yakla\u015f\u0131m), ge\u00e7en haftaki verilerde Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonunun (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ortak enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u015eubat\u2019ta beklenti d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi sonras\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\n

Faizler ve Opsiyonlar \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n2025\u2019ten geriye bak\u0131nca, ECB\u2019nin 2022\u2019deki enerji krizine ge\u00e7 tepki vermesiyle euronun parite alt\u0131na (parite: 1 EUR = 1 USD seviyesi) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n mevcut s\u00f6ylemi, ayn\u0131 hatay\u0131 tekrarlamak istemediklerini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, uyar\u0131lar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kat\u0131yor ve euronun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, euroda do\u011frudan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riskli olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. ECB kaynakl\u0131 \u201ctaban\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015fse bile k\u00e2r etmeyen, daha uzak seviyedeki sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya sat\u0131m kredi spreadi kurmay\u0131 (put credit spread: bir put sat\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put alarak prim geliri hedefleyen, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) cazip k\u0131labilir. Bu i\u015flemler, parite yatay kal\u0131rsa veya y\u00fckselirse prim gelirinden faydalanarak kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir; s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r.\n\nBu hava, d\u00f6viz pariteleri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir etken olan faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine (interest rate futures: gelecekteki faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de yans\u0131yor. Piyasada ECB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatland\u0131; olas\u0131l\u0131k ge\u00e7en ay %80\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn %40\u2019a geriledi. ECB\u2019nin gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimi\/daha rahat para politikas\u0131) ertelemesi, euroya dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda temel destek sa\u011flar.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrolde %50 \u015fok, dolarda beklenen ralli gelmedi! WTI geri \u00e7ekilince EUR\/USD 27 \u015eubat\u2019a g\u00f6re %1,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ECB enerji \u015fokuna toleranss\u0131z; erken ve \u015fahin tepki sinyali eurodaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30109\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}