{"id":30102,"date":"2026-03-11T17:02:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T17:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/subatta-abd-cekirdek-tufe-aylik-bazda-beklentilere-paralel-02-artti-genel-tufe-de-ongoruldugu-gibi-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T17:02:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T17:02:31","slug":"subatta-abd-cekirdek-tufe-aylik-bazda-beklentilere-paralel-02-artti-genel-tufe-de-ongoruldugu-gibi-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/subatta-abd-cekirdek-tufe-aylik-bazda-beklentilere-paralel-02-artti-genel-tufe-de-ongoruldugu-gibi-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eubat\u2019ta ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda beklentilere paralel, %0,2 artt\u0131; genel T\u00dcFE de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) \u015fubatta ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2 y\u00fckseldi. Veri, beklenen y\u00fczde 0,2 ile ayn\u0131 geldi.\n\n\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon beklentiye paralel gelince piyasadaki oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na gerileyebilir; 2025 sonundaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015fesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcrebilir. Bu ortam, opsiyon primini satmay\u0131 (opsiyon yazmak: prim toplamak i\u00e7in opsiyon sat\u0131p risk almak) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin demir kondor (iron condor: belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 kurulan, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 k\u00e2r\/zararl\u0131 strateji) veya k\u0131sa straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; fiyat \u00e7ok oynarsa zarar riski artar) gibi i\u015flemler geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n\n<h3>Fed Politika Beklentileri<\/h3>\nBu istikrarl\u0131 enflasyon verisi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) mevcut \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e vermiyor. Piyasa, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcretilen, faiz beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Haziran 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ilk 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimin (\u00e7eyrek puan: 0,25 y\u00fczde puan) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 60\u2019ta tutuyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (faiz futures: gelecekteki faiz seviyesine y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) band i\u00e7inde seyir beklenebilir.\n\nHisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu \u201cne \u00e7ok s\u0131cak ne \u00e7ok so\u011fuk\u201d rapor, 2022-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan beri s\u00fcren \u00f6nemli bir kayg\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu tablo temkinli iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. SPX veya NDX \u00fczerinde uzun call spread (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) y\u00fckseli\u015ften pay almak i\u00e7in tercih edilebilir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) sayesinde do\u011frudan al\u0131m opsiyonu almak da son aylara g\u00f6re daha ucuz hale geliyor.\n\n2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde beklenenden y\u00fcksek gelen birka\u00e7 enflasyon verisi riskli varl\u0131klarda (hisse senedi gibi dalgalanmaya a\u00e7\u0131k varl\u0131klar) belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdiki \u201cbeklentiye paralel\u201d veri, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu da piyasan\u0131n zeminini destekliyor; S&#038;P 500 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4 y\u00fckseldi.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Fed\u2019den \u015fahin (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir s\u00fcrpriz gelme riskinin azalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re faiz pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamas\u0131 beklenir. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede daha y\u00fcksek faize oynayan korunma i\u015flemlerinin (hedge: olumsuz fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Veriden sonra bir miktar dikle\u015fen getiri e\u011frisi (yield curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerde tahvil faizlerinin s\u0131ralanmas\u0131; \u201cdikle\u015fme\u201d uzun vade faizin k\u0131sa vadeye g\u00f6re daha fazla y\u00fckselmesi demektir), tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in mevcut \u00e7izgisini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde benimsedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de \u015fubat \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 0,2 ile beklentiye paralel: VIX bask\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, opsiyon primi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 caziple\u015fiyor. Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201dde; faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131 2026\u2019ya. Hissede temkinli iyimserlik. S&#038;P 500 destek buluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30102\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}