{"id":30099,"date":"2026-03-11T16:03:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T16:03:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocbc-stratejistleri-dolar-ve-petrolun-geri-cekilmesi-ile-iran-geriliminin-de-azalmasiyla-altindaki-toparlanmaya-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T16:03:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T16:03:40","slug":"ocbc-stratejistleri-dolar-ve-petrolun-geri-cekilmesi-ile-iran-geriliminin-de-azalmasiyla-altindaki-toparlanmaya-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocbc-stratejistleri-dolar-ve-petrolun-geri-cekilmesi-ile-iran-geriliminin-de-azalmasiyla-altindaki-toparlanmaya-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"OCBC stratejistleri, dolar ve petrol\u00fcn geri \u00e7ekilmesi ile \u0130ran geriliminin de azalmas\u0131yla alt\u0131ndaki toparlanmaya dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) dengeledi. Bu hareket, alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc k\u0131rmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nAlt\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, piyasa stresinde nakde d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n nakit yaratmak i\u00e7in pozisyon kapatmas\u0131) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca resmi sekt\u00f6r al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankalar\u0131 gibi kamu kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131) yava\u015flamas\u0131 da etkili oldu.\n\n<h3>Alt\u0131ndaki Toparlanmay\u0131 Destekleyen Unsurlar<\/h3>\nBir di\u011fer unsur, ABD faizlerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlikti. Buna, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki faiz indirimini yava\u015flatma veya erteleme ihtimali de dahil. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da ABD\u2019de enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) i\u00e7in risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\n\nTeknik seviyelerde (grafik destek\/diren\u00e7 noktalar\u0131) 5260 ve 5315 diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Destek seviyeleri ise 5105 (21 DMA \u2013 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, son 21 g\u00fcn fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) ve 5060 olarak belirtildi.\n\nYaz\u0131da, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi ifade edildi.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 endi\u015feler azal\u0131rken, opsiyon (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ve vadeli i\u015flem (futures; ileri tarihli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki dengelenme \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda izlenecek \u00f6nemli bir unsur.\n\n<h3>\u00d6nemli Seviyeler Ve \u0130\u015flem Senaryolar\u0131<\/h3>\nABD Dolar Endeksi 103\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na indi. Bunun temel nedeni, \u015eubat ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin (non-farm payrolls; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki yeni istihdam) 195 bin ile beklentinin biraz alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131. Bu durum beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (piyasadaki faiz beklentilerini olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in bu olas\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi, faiz geliri olmayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen varl\u0131klar) i\u00e7in destekleyici bir etki yarat\u0131yor.\n\nSon piyasa stresinde alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layan nakit yaratmak i\u00e7in varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (zorunlu sat\u0131\u015f\/likidasyon; pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131larak nakde d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi) etkisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan resmi sekt\u00f6r al\u0131mlar\u0131 yeniden canlanma sinyali veriyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (World Gold Council) Ocak 2026 verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n net 39 ton al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, kurumsal talebin (b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli kurumlar\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131) geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen modele benziyor: \u00f6nce nakde ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 5105\u20135060 destek b\u00f6lgesi, olas\u0131 giri\u015f seviyeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izlenebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 5260 direncine do\u011fru hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put; olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu satmak) veya y\u00fckseli\u015f ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread; iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda kritik toparlanma: Dolar 103 alt\u0131na inerken, petrol geri \u00e7ekildi; \u0130ran tansiyonu azal\u0131yor. Fed belirsizli\u011fi destek verirken 5105\u20135060 destek, 5260\u20135315 diren\u00e7; opsiyon\/vadeli stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30099\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}