{"id":30091,"date":"2026-03-11T14:03:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ubsten-paul-donovan-subat-abd-tufe-verisi-hala-onemli-cekirdek-enflasyon-gorunumu-ilimli-fed-genis-tabanli-artislari-dikkate-almali\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T14:03:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:03:58","slug":"ubsten-paul-donovan-subat-abd-tufe-verisi-hala-onemli-cekirdek-enflasyon-gorunumu-ilimli-fed-genis-tabanli-artislari-dikkate-almali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ubsten-paul-donovan-subat-abd-tufe-verisi-hala-onemli-cekirdek-enflasyon-gorunumu-ilimli-fed-genis-tabanli-artislari-dikkate-almali\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS\u2019ten Paul Donovan: \u015eubat ABD T\u00dcFE verisi h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131; Fed geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 dikkate almal\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD \u015eubat T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi, son piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce derlendi; yine de Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) para politikas\u0131 (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131n\u0131yor. Verinin, temel enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi) bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor.\n\nMerkez bankalar\u0131 genellikle ekonominin geneline yay\u0131lan fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na (yayg\u0131n enflasyon) tepki verir; bu t\u00fcr art\u0131\u015flar daha geni\u015f bir ekonomik dengesizli\u011fe i\u015faret eder. Fed\u2019in, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de olas\u0131 sevkiyat sorunlar\u0131 gibi tekil aksakl\u0131klara (belirli bir alanda ge\u00e7ici arz\/sunum bozulmas\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 yapabilecekleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon Alg\u0131s\u0131 ve G\u00fcnl\u00fck Fiyatlar<\/h3>\nABD\u2019de \u201cge\u00e7inme\u201d kayg\u0131lar\u0131, insanlar\u0131n enflasyonu nas\u0131l alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Bu alg\u0131, s\u0131k yap\u0131lan g\u00fcnl\u00fck al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fler (yak\u0131t, temel g\u0131da gibi) \u00fczerinden \u015fekillenir. S\u0131k al\u0131nan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim, daha seyrek kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lan giderlere (\u00f6r. baz\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6demeler) k\u0131yasla enflasyon alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla etkileyebilir.\n\nOcak diplerine g\u00f6re benzindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %27\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, \u015eubat T\u00dcFE verisine yans\u0131mayacak. Buna ra\u011fmen t\u00fcketiciler baz\u0131 temel g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 hissedebilir.\n\n\u015eubat 2026 enflasyon verisi, temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu, politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 endeks) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019e geriledi; bu da Fed\u2019e \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d i\u00e7in alan veriyor. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (gecelik teminatl\u0131 faiz oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 daha az sert fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nFed\u2019in, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimin petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutmas\u0131 gibi arz \u015foklar\u0131na (arz\u0131n aniden k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131) tepki vermesini beklemiyoruz. Fed\u2019in bu t\u00fcr sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 yok; bu nedenle enerji fiyat\u0131 y\u00fcksek diye faiz art\u0131rmaz. Bu ortam, emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin (dayana\u011f\u0131 emtia olan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) iyi performans g\u00f6stermesine, \u00fcstelik hemen ekonominin geneline yay\u0131lan bir politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 tetiklememesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n<h3>Dalgalanma ve Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\n\u00c7ekirdek veri sakin olsa da, t\u00fcketiciler s\u0131k ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha \u00e7ok hissediyor. ABD\u2019de benzin ulusal ortalamas\u0131 galon ba\u015f\u0131na 3,85 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131; Ocak\u2019tan bu yana sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f var ve resmi \u015eubat verisi bunu hen\u00fcz yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Resmi veri ile kamu alg\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu fark, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX, S&#038;P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen \u201cpiyasa korku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d) 19 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir; bu da opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) satanlar i\u00e7in cazip kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nFed\u2019in 2022 ve 2023\u2019te, enflasyon t\u00fcm ekonomiye yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015fken faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert ad\u0131mlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm farkl\u0131: fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 daha \u00e7ok enerji gibi belirli alanlarda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, genel piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ziyade tekil hisse veya sekt\u00f6rlerde s\u00fcren dalgalanmadan kazanmaya odaklanan stratejilerin daha etkili olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: \u015eubat ABD T\u00dcFE, \u00e7ekirdek bask\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019e \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d alan\u0131 verdi\u011fini g\u00f6sterebilir. Benzin\/art\u0131\u015f alg\u0131s\u0131 VIX\u2019i y\u00fcksek tutup opsiyon ve emtia stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30091"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30091\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}