{"id":30087,"date":"2026-03-11T13:03:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T13:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-dxynin-997-seviyesinden-geri-cevrilmesinin-g7-ieanin-dolar-talebini-kisitlamasiyla-2026da-risk-istahinda-degisime-isaret-ettigini-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T13:03:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T13:03:34","slug":"dbs-dxynin-997-seviyesinden-geri-cevrilmesinin-g7-ieanin-dolar-talebini-kisitlamasiyla-2026da-risk-istahinda-degisime-isaret-ettigini-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-dxynin-997-seviyesinden-geri-cevrilmesinin-g7-ieanin-dolar-talebini-kisitlamasiyla-2026da-risk-istahinda-degisime-isaret-ettigini-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS, DXY\u2019nin 99,7 seviyesinden geri \u00e7evrilmesinin, G7\/IEA\u2019n\u0131n Dolar talebini k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131yla 2026\u2019da risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"DBS Group Research, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan DXY Endeksi\u2019nin 99,7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Notta bu hareket, \u201cenerji k\u0131yameti\u201d (enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) temal\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n etkisini yitirmesi ve G7\/IEA ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmas\u0131yla, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131lan para birimi) talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ba\u011fland\u0131.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politikas\u0131 zaten s\u0131k\u0131. Politika faizi \u201creel\u201d olarak (enflasyon etkisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f faiz) +%0,75 seviyesinde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Ukrayna krizinin ba\u015f\u0131nda reel politika faizi -%5,65 idi.\n\n<h3>Dolar\u0131n Yukar\u0131 Potansiyeli Art\u0131k S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131<\/h3>\nDBS, ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,4 oldu\u011funu belirterek bunun 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda ek y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da iki Fed faiz indirimi beklentisinin, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar\u2019\u0131 yukar\u0131 itme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekledi.\n\nNotta, yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenip uzun s\u00fcreli bir enflasyon d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi) yaratmas\u0131 durumunda 2026\u2019da iki indirim beklentisinin ortadan kalkabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Reel faiz duru\u015fu ile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n, 2022\u2019de olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar Dolar i\u00e7in bir \u201ctavan\u201d olu\u015fturdu\u011fu da belirtildi.\n\nABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,7 seviyesini a\u015famamas\u0131, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor. 2025 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert gerilerken, Dolar\u2019a g\u00fcvenli liman talebi de so\u011fudu. Bu seviyede g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, Dolar\u2019\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n\n2022\u2019den farkl\u0131 olarak Fed, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde m\u00fccadele etmiyor. Mevcut reel faiz +%0,75 ile s\u0131k\u0131 kal\u0131rken, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi Fed\u2019in oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201de (ekonomiyi resesyona sokmadan enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme hedefi) kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Dolar\u2019\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131\u201d zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>DXY \u0130\u00e7in Strateji Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\nSon veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) %3,1 ile y\u00f6netilebilir seviyede geldi; bu da piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi de enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak Fed\u2019e hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu tablo, Dolar\u2019\u0131n buradan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in ikna edici bir gerek\u00e7esi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nDolar\u2019daki bu tavan dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yatay bantta hareketten veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 100 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi seviye) DXY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread (iki call opsiyonuyla risk ve getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) kurmak bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanman\u0131n yollar\u0131 olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, endeks kilit diren\u00e7 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a ve \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) gerileme e\u011filimine girdik\u00e7e avantaj sa\u011flar.\n\nB\u00f6yle bir ortam, Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda di\u011fer para birimlerinde uzun \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438isyon (de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 da daha cazip hale getiriyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2025 sonundaki \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japon Yeni\u2019nde al\u0131m opsiyonu almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yatay bir Dolar ile Japonya\u2019da daha az g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimine yak\u0131n) bir merkez bankas\u0131 birle\u015fince, JPY\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7lenme i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fuyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DXY 99,7\u2019yi a\u015famad\u0131: petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle \u201cenerji k\u0131yameti\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Reel faiz +%0,75, i\u015fsizlik %4,4. 2026 indirimleri dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; strateji: yatay\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, JPY long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}