{"id":30080,"date":"2026-03-11T11:04:57","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-iran-saldirilari-korfez-altyapisina-yonelik-tehditler-ve-abdnin-saldirilari-ortaminda-petrol-fiyatlarinin-hurmuz-risklerini-yeterince-fiyatlamadigini-belirtiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T11:04:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:04:57","slug":"rabobank-iran-saldirilari-korfez-altyapisina-yonelik-tehditler-ve-abdnin-saldirilari-ortaminda-petrol-fiyatlarinin-hurmuz-risklerini-yeterince-fiyatlamadigini-belirtiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-iran-saldirilari-korfez-altyapisina-yonelik-tehditler-ve-abdnin-saldirilari-ortaminda-petrol-fiyatlarinin-hurmuz-risklerini-yeterince-fiyatlamadigini-belirtiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank, \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, K\u00f6rfez altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditler ve ABD’nin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz risklerini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank RaboResearch, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin vurmas\u0131 nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde artan risklerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131na tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Raporda, gelecekteki petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n nas\u0131l bitece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, UEA\u2019n\u0131n (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) stratejik rezervlerden petrol satmas\u0131n\u0131n (acil durum stoklar\u0131n\u0131 piyasaya s\u00fcrmesinin) bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir s\u00fcre azaltabilece\u011fi belirtildi.\n\n\u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail geri \u00e7ekilene kadar \u201ctek bir litre\u201d petrol\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011fazda may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen gemileri ve s\u00fcrat teknelerini devreye soktu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. ABD, 16 may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyiciyi imha etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Raporda ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lgede ABD, K\u0130K (K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi) ya da Avrupa\u2019ya ait may\u0131n avlama gemilerinin (deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 tespit edip etkisizle\u015ftiren unsurlar) veya korvetlerin (k\u0131y\u0131\/s\u0131\u011f sularda g\u00f6rev yapan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sava\u015f gemileri) g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fi not edildi.\n\n

T\u0131rmanma Zaman \u00c7izelgesi Ve Piyasa Sinyalleri<\/h3>\nRapora g\u00f6re \u015fimdiye kadarki en a\u011f\u0131r ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130srail savunma medyas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20132 haftada eylemlerini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerken; baz\u0131 \u0130srailli yetkililerin \u0130ran\u2019daki y\u00f6netimin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin bir y\u0131la kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair haberler de aktar\u0131ld\u0131.\n\nWall Street Journal, UEA\u2019n\u0131n G7 taahh\u00fctlerinin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek stratejik rezervlerden tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerebilece\u011fini yazd\u0131. Raporda ayr\u0131ca ekran fiyatlar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler gibi finansal piyasalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyatlar) ile fiziki bulunabilirlik (ger\u00e7ek teslim edilebilir mal) aras\u0131nda petrol ve ilgili \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde\u2014k\u00fck\u00fcrt, g\u00fcbre ve helyum gibi\u2014fark olu\u015ftu\u011fu belirtildi.\n\n2025 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizinin dersleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131: Piyasa, \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 somut riskleri ve olas\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmi\u015fti. O d\u00f6nemde ekrandaki petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 yak\u0131nda olacakm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, ABD\u2019nin askeri ad\u0131mlar\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131yordu. Bu, finansal piyasalar ile sahadaki ger\u00e7ek ko\u015fullar aras\u0131nda tehlikeli bir kopuklu\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBrent petrol \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu da yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir sakinlik alg\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Ancak bu fiyat, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n (OPEC ve ortaklar\u0131) g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,2 milyon varillik g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca uzatma karar\u0131nca destekleniyor. Bu durum, sistemde beklenmedik arz kesintilerini kar\u015f\u0131layacak yedek kapasiteyi (acil durumda h\u0131zl\u0131 devreye al\u0131nabilecek ekstra \u00fcretimi) \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019ten farkl\u0131 olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli stratejik rezerv sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla olu\u015fan tampon art\u0131k yok; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD stoklar\u0131 o d\u00f6nemdeki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 45 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde. Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k taraf\u0131 riski zaten fiyatl\u0131yor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015fleri i\u00e7in sava\u015f riski primleri (sigortaya eklenen ilave maliyet) man\u015fet petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sakin kalsa da son bir ayda sessizce %0,25 artt\u0131. Bu da fiziki piyasan\u0131n, k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (vadeli ve t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler) g\u00f6rmezden geldi\u011fi riskleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\n

Kuyruk Riski \u0130\u00e7in Opsiyon Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\nBu tablo, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) alttaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Finansal piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rmedi\u011fi ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ekran fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sakinli\u011fi ile fiziki variller ve k\u00fck\u00fcrt ile g\u00fcbre gibi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere d\u00f6n\u00fck artan riskler aras\u0131ndaki fark art\u0131k g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brent 85 dolarda \u201csakin\u201d; ama H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de may\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctek litre \u00e7\u0131kmayacak\u201d \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 riskin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermiyor. UEA rezerv sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici; opsiyonda kuyruk riski f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30080"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30080\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}