{"id":30069,"date":"2026-03-11T09:05:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T09:05:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/erken-avrupa-seansinda-eur-jpy-bojnin-sikilasma-hizina-iliskin-supheler-nedeniyle-zayiflayan-yenin-etkisiyle-18400-seviyesine-yakin-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T09:05:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T09:05:31","slug":"erken-avrupa-seansinda-eur-jpy-bojnin-sikilasma-hizina-iliskin-supheler-nedeniyle-zayiflayan-yenin-etkisiyle-18400-seviyesine-yakin-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/erken-avrupa-seansinda-eur-jpy-bojnin-sikilasma-hizina-iliskin-supheler-nedeniyle-zayiflayan-yenin-etkisiyle-18400-seviyesine-yakin-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Erken Avrupa seans\u0131nda EUR\/JPY, BoJ\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcpheler nedeniyle zay\u0131flayan yenin etkisiyle 184,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/JPY, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 183,90 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Yen, Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u201cnormalle\u015ftirmeye\u201d (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikadan daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikaya ge\u00e7i\u015fe) ne h\u0131zla y\u00f6nelece\u011finden emin de\u011fil. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n nihai HICP verisi (Harmonize T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilen enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.\n\nReuters\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc anketine g\u00f6re, 64 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 BoJ\u2019un gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da faizi %0,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayn\u0131 ankette ekonomistlerin %60\u2019\u0131 politika faizinin haziran sonuna kadar %1,00\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u015eubat anketinde bu oran %58\u2019di.\n\n<h3>BoJ G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Piyasa Belirsizli\u011fi<\/h3>\nBoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, ge\u00e7en hafta Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomi \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkileri nedeniyle faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit kalabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehditler dahil artan gerilim, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Yen\u2019i destekleyebilir ve paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC), ABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 engelleyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc IRGC, b\u00f6lgede \u201cd\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n\u201d teknolojik altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu durum, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 riskine dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\n2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131nca, EUR\/JPY\u2019nin 184,00\u2019e do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini, bunun da BoJ\u2019un normalle\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikten kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu belirsizlik hakl\u0131yd\u0131; BoJ o tarihten bu yana temkinli kald\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde de bug\u00fcn de ana unsur, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika fark\u0131.\n\nBug\u00fcn BoJ\u2019un politika faizi %1,00 seviyesinde ve bu oran, ekonomistlerin 2025 ortas\u0131 i\u00e7in bekledi\u011fi seviye ile ayn\u0131; ancak o tarihten beri de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) %2,2 civar\u0131nda inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrederken BoJ, daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (agresif art\u0131\u015f) sinyali vermekte isteksiz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), kendi enflasyon sorunlar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ana faizini %3,0\u2019te tuttu. Bu da Euro\u2019ya \u201cgetiri avantaj\u0131\u201d (faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan kazan\u00e7 \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Eurjpy \u0130\u015flemleri \u0130\u00e7in Strateji Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, \u201ccarry trade\u201di (faizi y\u00fcksek para birimini al\u0131p faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck para birimini satma stratejisi) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: EUR\/JPY i\u00e7in \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) 2024 ve 2025 zirvelerine k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir banda yerle\u015fti. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n prim toplamak i\u00e7in \u201cput\u201d satmay\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonu satarak gelir elde etmek) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; beklenti, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n parite i\u00e7in bir taban g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik unsuru olmaya devam ediyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi; ancak aral\u0131kl\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar, zaman zaman Yen\u2019de g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmeler carry trade i\u00e7in temel risk. \u201cOut-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzakta, \u015fu an k\u00e2rl\u0131 olmayan) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primli EUR\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ani bir t\u0131rmanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 \u201chedge\u201d (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in koruma) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.\n\nBu nedenle mevcut ortam, faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/JPY\u2019de \u201cuzun\u201d pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyerek al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bunu opsiyonlarla yap\u0131land\u0131rmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019dan daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi veya k\u00fcresel gerilimlerde bir t\u0131rmanma, bu pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde kapanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Gelecek hafta Japonya\u2019daki ulusal \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden gelecek veriler, gelecekteki enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/JPY 183,90\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131, Yen zay\u0131f. BoJ\u2019un normalle\u015fme temposu belirsiz; faiz fark\u0131 Euro\u2019yu destekleyip carry trade\u2019i cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu riski ters hareket yaratabilir. Avrupa HICP izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30069\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}