{"id":30044,"date":"2026-03-11T03:07:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T03:07:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rba-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-etkisiyle-aud-1e-yakin-yukseldi-aud-usd-07100un-uzerine-cikarak-07131e-ulasti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T03:07:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T03:07:23","slug":"rba-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-etkisiyle-aud-1e-yakin-yukseldi-aud-usd-07100un-uzerine-cikarak-07131e-ulasti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rba-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-etkisiyle-aud-1e-yakin-yukseldi-aud-usd-07100un-uzerine-cikarak-07131e-ulasti\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin etkisiyle AUD %1\u2019e yak\u0131n y\u00fckseldi; AUD\/USD 0,7100\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 0,7131\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckseldi ve gev\u015femeden \u00f6nce \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan 0,7168\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan 0,7131\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Hareket, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini izledi.\n\nParite 0,7100\u2019un \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, kurun bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p yapamayaca\u011f\u0131. G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f\/h\u0131z durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 64\u2019te. RSI\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nceki tepesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret eder.\n\n

\u00d6nemli Teknik Seviyeler ve Momentum<\/h3>\nAUD\/USD 0,7168\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa s\u0131radaki seviyeler 0,7200; sonra 0,7250 ve 0,7300. 0,7100\u2019un alt\u0131na inerse destek 0,7053\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan 0,7000 ve 0,6956\u2019da izlenir.\n\nAvustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 etkileyen temel ba\u015fl\u0131klar: RBA faizleri, demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131, \u00c7in ekonomisinin g\u00fcc\u00fc, enflasyon, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi\u2019dir (ihracat ile ithalat fark\u0131). Demir cevheri 2021\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolar de\u011ferindeydi; ana al\u0131c\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019di. RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon hedefi %2\u2013%3\u2019t\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca niceliksel gev\u015feme\/s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma uygulayabilir (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan varl\u0131k al\u0131p satarak para ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi ya da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131).\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7100\u2019un \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Ancak bu beklentiler erken fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in hareketin etkisi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mart 2026\u2019da tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti.\n\nRBA son alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r politika faizini (nakit faiz oran\u0131) %4,50\u2019de sabit tutuyor; bu, 2025\u2019teki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan net bir \u201cbekleme\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor. Ayr\u0131ca kilit ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda bask\u0131 i\u015faretleri var: \u00c7in\u2019in \u015eubat ay\u0131 Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisi 49,8 ile daralmaya i\u015faret etti (PMI: 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma, \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme). Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki daha iyimser tabloya g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f.\n\n

Opsiyon Stratejileri ve Oynakl\u0131k G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim emtia fiyatlar\u0131na da yans\u0131yor: Demir cevheri 2025 sonundaki zirvelerinden gerileyerek ton ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle AUD\/USD 0,6750\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlan\u0131yor; bu, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelerden tamamen farkl\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki olumlu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f durumda.\n\nMomentumun zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 0,6850 ve 0,6900 diren\u00e7 seviyelerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011ferlenen opsiyon) satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu strateji, parite yatay kal\u0131rsa veya d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar ve Avustralya dolar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme iste\u011finin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden gelir yaratmay\u0131 hedefler. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli beklenmiyorsa, prim geliri elde etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.\n\nDaha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften endi\u015fe edenler i\u00e7inse 0,6700 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011ferlenen opsiyon) almak bir korunma (hedge: olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) y\u00f6ntemidir. Bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 veriler veya \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek olumsuz haberlerle tetiklenebilir. B\u00f6yle bir hareket, 0,6600 civar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyebilir.\n\nRBA\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcren bekleme d\u00f6neminde AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor. Bu durum, bir sonraki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131 veya \u00f6nemli bir enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde straddle ya da strangle al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunabilir (straddle: ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ve put almak; strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ve put almak). B\u00f6ylece piyasa hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanma hedeflenir; merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 halinde bu olas\u0131l\u0131k artabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD RBA\u2019n\u0131n Mart\u2019ta faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle %1 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 0,7168\u2019i test etti, 0,7131\u2019e indi. Kritik e\u015fik 0,7100; RSI 64. Seviyeler, \u00c7in\/demir cevheri ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30044\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}