{"id":30038,"date":"2026-03-11T02:01:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T02:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/standard-chartered-yukselen-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-enflasyonun-gevsemeyi-erteleyebilecegini-belirtse-de-endonezya-merkez-bankasinin-2026nin-ikinci-ceyreginde-25-baz-puan-faiz-indirimi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T02:01:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T02:01:27","slug":"standard-chartered-yukselen-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-enflasyonun-gevsemeyi-erteleyebilecegini-belirtse-de-endonezya-merkez-bankasinin-2026nin-ikinci-ceyreginde-25-baz-puan-faiz-indirimi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/standard-chartered-yukselen-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-enflasyonun-gevsemeyi-erteleyebilecegini-belirtse-de-endonezya-merkez-bankasinin-2026nin-ikinci-ceyreginde-25-baz-puan-faiz-indirimi\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve enflasyonun gev\u015femeyi erteleyebilece\u011fini belirtse de, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 25 baz puan faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered ekonomistleri, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia\/BI) 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde politika faizini 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) indirmesini h\u00e2l\u00e2 bekliyor. Ancak y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve artan enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskleri, gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimi s\u00fcrecini) geciktirebilir. Rapora g\u00f6re risklerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve bunun k\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na etkisiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.\n\nKamu b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki s\u0131n\u0131rlar, at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015fekillendirebilir. Buna, akaryak\u0131t fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketiciye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in (ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi azaltmak) s\u00fcbvansiyon d\u0131\u015f\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131smaya d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131mlar da dahil. Resmi tahminlere g\u00f6re petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f, gelirleri GSYH\u2019nin (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) %0,1\u2019i kadar art\u0131r\u0131rken, enerji s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 (devlet deste\u011fi) ve telafi \u00f6demeleri %0,3 art\u0131yor; bu da b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc De\u011fi\u015fiyor<\/h3>\nRapor, BI\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma e\u011filimi) bozulman\u0131n, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 istikrar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 bask\u0131 nedeniyle BI\u2019yi faiz indirimi konusunda daha temkinli yapabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\n\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte 25 baz puanl\u0131k BI faiz indirimi beklentisi art\u0131k net de\u011fil. Bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f. Brent ham petrol (k\u00fcresel referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) mart ba\u015f\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 82 dolarl\u0131k ortalamaya g\u00f6re belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f.\n\nArtan enerji maliyetleri, Endonezya ekonomisinde enflasyon endi\u015felerini do\u011frudan art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u015eubatta a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon %3,1 oldu ve BI\u2019nin hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu bask\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini (faizleri) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nKamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki her %10 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, s\u00fcbvansiyon maliyetleri nedeniyle b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2\u2019si kadar b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tahmin ediliyor. Bu mali bask\u0131 ve artan k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131, para birimini korumay\u0131 \u00f6ncelik haline getiriyor. Endonezya Rupisi (IDR) zaten zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve 1 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 15.850 seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu d\u00fczey, 2025 sonundaki \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d d\u00f6neminden (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) beri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyordu.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\nBu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Endonezya faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyonlar\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin faiz indirimi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan \u201csabit faiz alma\u201d (receive-fixed: de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deyip sabit faiz alma) faiz swaplar\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131; taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yeni odak, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler olabilir.\n\nBu, faiz indirimi gecikti\u011fi i\u00e7in Rupinin beklenenden daha istikrarl\u0131 ya da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. Benzer bir durum 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: K\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, BI\u2019yi para birimini savunmak ve enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, mevcut ortamda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femeden \u00f6nce istikrara \u00f6ncelik verebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol 95 dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nca Endonezya\u2019da faiz indirimi rafa m\u0131 kalk\u0131yor? Standard Chartered, BI\u2019den 2026\/2\u00c7\u2019de 25 bp indirim bekliyor; ancak enflasyon, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve zay\u0131f rupi geciktirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30038\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}