{"id":30033,"date":"2026-03-11T01:03:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nomura-riksbank-faizlerinin-degismeden-kalmasini-bekliyor-isvecte-enflasyon-beklentilerin-altinda-kaldi-iran-gerilimi-ise-enerji-fiyatlarini-yukari-cekebilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T01:03:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:03:32","slug":"nomura-riksbank-faizlerinin-degismeden-kalmasini-bekliyor-isvecte-enflasyon-beklentilerin-altinda-kaldi-iran-gerilimi-ise-enerji-fiyatlarini-yukari-cekebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nomura-riksbank-faizlerinin-degismeden-kalmasini-bekliyor-isvecte-enflasyon-beklentilerin-altinda-kaldi-iran-gerilimi-ise-enerji-fiyatlarini-yukari-cekebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura, Riksbank faizlerinin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te enflasyon beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131, \u0130ran gerilimi ise enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te enflasyon, \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r piyasa beklentilerinin (konsens\u00fcs tahmin) alt\u0131nda geliyor. \u00d6te yandan \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda yeniden artan bask\u0131, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen enerji \u015fokuna benzer \u015fekilde enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itebilir.\n\nRiksbank\u2019\u0131n (\u0130sve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika faizini (bankan\u0131n ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi ana faiz) bu y\u0131l ve 2026 boyunca de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor. Bankan\u0131n, enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u201cikinci tur etkilerini\u201d (ilk etapta enerji zamlar\u0131yla ba\u015flayan fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zamanla di\u011fer mal ve hizmetlere yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u00fccret\/fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi) izlemesi ve enflasyon ile ekonomik aktivitedeki belirsizlik nedeniyle 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (veriler netle\u015fene kadar ad\u0131m atmama) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 benimsemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon Riskleri ve Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, harcama ve yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatarak (g\u00fcven d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc nedeniyle talebin azalmas\u0131) talebi de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. \u0130sve\u00e7, 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki zay\u0131f ya da negatif GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ard\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir toparlanma i\u00e7inde. Ayl\u0131k veriler, Aral\u0131k ve Ocak\u2019ta GSYH\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nOcak ay\u0131nda GSYH, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re (ayl\u0131k bazda) %1,1 geriledi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bitmesi ve verilerin daha netle\u015fmesi halinde faiz indirimi yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; ancak bu, ana senaryo olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor.\n\nRiksbank\u2019\u0131n 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken temel gerilim, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 veriler ile yeni enflasyon riskleri aras\u0131nda. \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te enflasyonun d\u00f6rt ay \u00fcst \u00fcste beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u015eubat\u2019ta CPIF verisi %2,1\u2019e indi. (CPIF: Sabit faizli t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; faiz etkileri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak enflasyonun daha \u201ctemel\u201d seyrini izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.) Ancak \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolara y\u00fckseltti ve yeni bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cithal\u201d edilmesi (y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz \u00fczerinden \u00fclke i\u00e7i fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, bu y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci tur enflasyon yaratabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu da 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda politika faizinin sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 en olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 haline getiriyor. Faiz swaplar\u0131 piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair beklentileri yans\u0131tan faiz takas\u0131 i\u015flemleri) da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor; y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %15\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatlan\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>SEK Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Al\u0131m-Sat\u0131m Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n\nBu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bask\u0131 (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f; faizi indirmeme e\u011filimi), \u0130sve\u00e7 ekonomisinin 2025\u2019teki yava\u015flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde geliyor. Veriler, Ocak\u2019ta GSYH\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %1,1 sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, Aral\u0131k\u2019taki gerilemeyi izledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Normalde bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k faiz indirimi beklentilerini art\u0131r\u0131rd\u0131; ancak enerji taraf\u0131ndaki riskler bunu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu y\u00fcksek belirsizlik, opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n; beklenen oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckselir) y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve \u201cuzun oynakl\u0131k\u201d stratejilerini (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 artarsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. 19 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u0130sve\u00e7 Kronu\u2019nda (SEK) straddle veya strangle almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Straddle: ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; Strangle: ayn\u0131 vadeli ama farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak.) Bu stratejiler, banka a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ya da \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha gev\u015fek duru\u015f; faiz indirimine yak\u0131n ton) olsun, piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket olursa kazand\u0131rabilir.\n\nAlternatif olarak, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 piyasaya iyi anlataca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, kur yatay bantta kalabilir (belirli aral\u0131kta gidip gelme; range-bound). Bu senaryoda EUR\/SEK kurunda iron condor satmak (belirli bir bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kazand\u0131ran, d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. Bu pozisyon, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 piyasan\u0131n daha istikrarl\u0131 bir i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yerle\u015fmesiyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te enflasyon 4 ayd\u0131r beklenti alt\u0131; CPIF %2,1. Ancak \u0130ran gerilimiyle petrol 98$, enerji \u015foku riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Riksbank 19 Mart\u2019ta bekle-g\u00f6r; faizler 2026\u2019ya dek sabit, SEK\u2019te oynakl\u0131k stratejileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30033\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}