{"id":30030,"date":"2026-03-11T01:01:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-catismasi-ve-enerji-kaynakli-riskler-surerken-dolarin-gevsemesi-ve-kazanclarin-silinmesiyle-usd-jpy-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T01:01:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:01:27","slug":"abd-iran-catismasi-ve-enerji-kaynakli-riskler-surerken-dolarin-gevsemesi-ve-kazanclarin-silinmesiyle-usd-jpy-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-catismasi-ve-enerji-kaynakli-riskler-surerken-dolarin-gevsemesi-ve-kazanclarin-silinmesiyle-usd-jpy-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 riskler s\u00fcrerken, dolar\u0131n gev\u015femesi ve kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n silinmesiyle USD\/JPY yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Yen, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay seyretti; dolar\u0131n gev\u015femesiyle USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,60 seviyesindeydi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY &#8211; dolar\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) pazartesi 99,70 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 99,63 civar\u0131na indi.\n\nDolar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok yak\u0131nda\u201d bitebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. Trump ayr\u0131ca baz\u0131 petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in muafiyet (ge\u00e7ici istisna) olabilece\u011fini belirtti ve ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ticari petrol tankerlerine refakat edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>Jeopolitik Sinyallerle Dolar Geri \u00c7ekildi<\/h3>\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla arz endi\u015feleri (petrol tedarikinde aksama riski) nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert y\u00fckseldi, Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geriledi. Fiyatlar, G7 \u00fclkelerinin Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 \u00fczerinden koordineli petrol rezervi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (stratejik stoklardan piyasaya petrol verme) se\u00e7ene\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair haberlerle de gev\u015fedi.\n\nDaha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 riski) azaltt\u0131. Ancak \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan petrol sevkiyat\u0131na izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi i\u00e7in belirsizlik y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Japonya, ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %95\u2019ini Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan ithal ediyor; bu sevkiyatlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019i bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor.\n\nPiyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6teleyece\u011fini; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ise faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi verisinde (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131na dair g\u00f6sterge) 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama 15,5 bin oldu; \u00f6nceki 12,8 bindi.\n\nJaponya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 4. \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki %0,1\u2019di. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,3 ile %0,2\u2019nin ve %1,2 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. S\u0131radaki veriler \u00e7ar\u015famba Japonya \u00dcFE (\u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131; maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) ve ABD T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu), cuma ise ABD PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat g\u00f6stergesi).\n\n<h3>Usd Jpy G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Ve Opsiyon Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n2025\u2019in geri kalan\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden bug\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha dengeli 82 dolar seviyesine \u00e7ekti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Japonya i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131; \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya ait son ticaret verileri, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji ithalat maliyetleri sayesinde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131na i\u015faret etti. B\u00f6ylece petrol kaynakl\u0131 yen bask\u0131s\u0131 son 12 ayda belirgin bi\u00e7imde azald\u0131.\n\nPetroldeki rahatlamaya ra\u011fmen USD\/JPY gerilemedi; aksine y\u00fckselerek 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunu, para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) destekledi: BoJ normalle\u015fmeyi (\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\/negatif faizlerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) geciktirirken, Fed yap\u0131\u015fkan i\u00e7 enflasyonla (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen enflasyon) m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tuttu. ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131 geni\u015fledi; bu da yen yerine dolar ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (dolar mevduat\/varl\u0131k tutmay\u0131) daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 hale getirdi.\n\n\u015eimdi odak jeopolitikten BoJ\u2019un bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na kayd\u0131. Son veriler Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun (enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,5\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u201cShunto\u201d bahar \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine (sendikalarla toplu \u00fccret pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi) dair ilk bilgiler de 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc maa\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, BoJ\u2019un \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 (mevduat faizinin s\u0131f\u0131r alt\u0131 olmas\u0131) terk edebilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu ortam, oynakl\u0131k stratejilerine (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flemler) elveri\u015fli. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki belirsizlik nedeniyle alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) almak, BoJ\u2019un sert hareket etmesi ya da beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda dahi b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.\n\nParite \u00e7ok uzun d\u00f6nemli zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in BoJ daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir mesaj verirse sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltme riski artar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, gelecek 1-2 ay vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money; \u015fu an k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ihtimaline s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyet ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201csava\u015f yak\u0131nda bitebilir\u201d mesaj\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekilirken yen yatay kald\u0131; USD\/JPY 157,60-159,50 band\u0131nda. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc rahatlat\u0131yor; odak BoJ-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 zirvede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30030\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}