{"id":30023,"date":"2026-03-10T22:02:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T22:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nordeanin-bas-analisti-ocak-ayindaki-gsyh-dususune-ragmen-isvecin-toparlanmasinin-surdugunu-hizmetler-sektorunun-buyudugunu-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T22:02:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T22:02:13","slug":"nordeanin-bas-analisti-ocak-ayindaki-gsyh-dususune-ragmen-isvecin-toparlanmasinin-surdugunu-hizmetler-sektorunun-buyudugunu-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nordeanin-bas-analisti-ocak-ayindaki-gsyh-dususune-ragmen-isvecin-toparlanmasinin-surdugunu-hizmetler-sektorunun-buyudugunu-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Nordea\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f analisti, Ocak ay\u0131ndaki GSYH d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ra\u011fmen \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in ayl\u0131k GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) g\u00f6stergesi, ocakta \u00fcretimin ayl\u0131k bazda %1,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,6 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130sve\u00e7 \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun (SCB) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; in\u015faat ve imalattaki gerileme ile kamu t\u00fcketimindeki (devlet harcamalar\u0131) azalmadan kaynakland\u0131.\n\nAyn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi ve \u00f6zel hizmetler artt\u0131. Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ge\u00e7ici etkenlerle (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\/tek seferlik nedenlerle) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131.\n\n

Di\u011fer Anket Bazl\u0131 G\u00f6stergeler B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin S\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne \u0130\u015faret Etti<\/h3>\nDi\u011fer anket bazl\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. Toparlanma beklentisi de\u011fi\u015fmedi.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n (\u0130sve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkilemesi bekleniyordu. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek haftaki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temkinli, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.\n\n

Piyasalar Faiz Belirsizli\u011fi ve Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Yeniden Fiyatl\u0131yor<\/h3>\nBu durum bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor: Riksbank art\u0131k hem yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme hem de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi) ayn\u0131 anda m\u00fccadele ediyor; bu da bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 belirsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Belirsizlik, faiz takas\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (swaption: faiz takas\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmesine ileride girme hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa art\u0131k faiz indirimlerinin net bir rota izleyece\u011fine emin de\u011fil. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (faizlerde dalgalanma) artmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438syon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\n\nBuna paralel olarak \u0130sve\u00e7 Kronu zay\u0131flad\u0131; EUR\/SEK paritesi 2025 sonlar\u0131nda 11,20 civar\u0131ndan bug\u00fcn 11,45\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin EUR\/SEK opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) son bir ayda %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi; bu, piyasan\u0131n tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Kron\u2019da iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert harekete (yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131) oynayan \u201cuzun straddle\u201d gibi stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte almak) de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\nYava\u015flama, \u00f6zellikle imalat ve in\u015faata ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerde (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler) yerel hisse piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da bask\u0131l\u0131yor. OMXS30 endeksinde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (put: endeks d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse pozisyonlar\u0131nda daha temkinli olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (opsiyon\/s\u00f6zle\u015fme gibi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz daralma: \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te ayl\u0131k GSYH ocakta %1,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,6 artt\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat-imalat zay\u0131f, kamu harcamas\u0131 geriledi. Riksbank bekle-g\u00f6r; kron zay\u0131f, faiz\/kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}