{"id":30020,"date":"2026-03-10T21:03:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nomura-enerji-vadeli-islemleri-catisma-oncesi-seviyelere-donerse-ecbnin-2026ya-kadar-faizleri-degistirmeyecegini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T21:03:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:03:13","slug":"nomura-enerji-vadeli-islemleri-catisma-oncesi-seviyelere-donerse-ecbnin-2026ya-kadar-faizleri-degistirmeyecegini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nomura-enerji-vadeli-islemleri-catisma-oncesi-seviyelere-donerse-ecbnin-2026ya-kadar-faizleri-degistirmeyecegini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura, enerji vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nerse ECB\u2019nin 2026\u2019ya kadar faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Nomura\u2019n\u0131n Global Piyasalar Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Ekibi, Brent ham petrol ve Hollanda TTF do\u011fal gaz **vadeli i\u015flem** fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (ileride teslim edilecek emtia i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, ECB\u2019nin 2026 boyunca faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu senaryoda, **reel ekonomi** (\u00fcretim, t\u00fcketim, yat\u0131r\u0131m gibi \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d faaliyetler) \u00fczerindeki etkinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nFinansal piyasalar, ECB\u2019nin politika faizlerinde Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k **25 baz puan** (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) ve Aral\u0131k 2027\u2019ye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k **33 baz puan** art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu fiyatlama, Brent ve Hollanda TTF vadeli i\u015flem **e\u011frilerinin** (vadelerdeki fiyatlar\u0131n \u00e7izgisi) yukar\u0131 kaymas\u0131na ve **HICP enflasyonunda** (Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin resmi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) art\u0131\u015f beklentisine ba\u011fl\u0131.\n\n<h3>Enerji Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri ve Politika Etkileri<\/h3>\nNomura, vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frilerinin son zirvesindeki seviyeler ECB\u2019nin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, ECB\u2019nin bu y\u0131l iki kez faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Haziran\u2019da gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 Haziran\u2019a kadar son zirve seviyelerinde **sabitlenirse**, bu kez Brent ve do\u011fal gaz vadeli fiyat e\u011frileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in (uzun vadeler daha ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in) HICP enflasyon tahminlerine daha fazla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki yapabilir.\n\nBu \u201csabitlenme\u201d senaryosunda Nomura, ek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Not: Makalede i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nomura\u2019ya g\u00f6re enerji vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesine d\u00f6nerse ECB 2026\u2019da faizi sabit tutar. Ancak e\u011friler zirvede kal\u0131rsa Haziran\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak iki, hatta ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30020"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30020\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}