{"id":30018,"date":"2026-03-10T21:01:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-ingilterede-riskler-yuksek-kalmaya-devam-ediyor-enerji-soklari-tufeyi-yukselterek-boenin-gevseme-alanini-sinirlayabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T21:01:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:01:34","slug":"rabobanktan-jane-foley-ingilterede-riskler-yuksek-kalmaya-devam-ediyor-enerji-soklari-tufeyi-yukselterek-boenin-gevseme-alanini-sinirlayabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-ingilterede-riskler-yuksek-kalmaya-devam-ediyor-enerji-soklari-tufeyi-yukselterek-boenin-gevseme-alanini-sinirlayabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de riskler y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; enerji \u015foklar\u0131 T\u00dcFE\u2019yi y\u00fckselterek BoE\u2019nin gev\u015feme alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019a g\u00f6re Sterlin son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da, \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye (Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k) y\u00f6nelik riskler h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek. Banka, bir enerji \u015fokunun y\u0131l ortas\u0131na kadar \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE\u2019sini (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 baz puan (bps: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 65 bps = 0,65 puan) art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz indirimi alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\nBanka, petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kamu maliyesi (devletin gelir-gider dengesi) \u00fczerindeki risklerini s\u0131ral\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl 2022\u2019deki Truss mini-b\u00fct\u00e7esinden bu yana \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n (vergi ve harcama kararlar\u0131) piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde izlendi\u011fini; y\u00fcksek kamu borcu ve gilt piyasas\u0131ndaki (\u0130ngiliz devlet tahvili piyasas\u0131) hassasiyetin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurguluyor.\n\n<h3>Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131: Enflasyon ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme Riskleri<\/h3>\nRabobank, do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131nda daha uzun s\u00fcren bir s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n Maliye Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7edeki \u201cmali manevra alan\u0131n\u0131\u201d (beklenmedik harcama\/\u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131labilecek pay) azaltabilece\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Banka, enerji krizinin man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (genel enflasyon) y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda daha \u00f6nceki %2 tahmini yerine %2,7\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini hesapl\u0131yor.\n\nBanka ayr\u0131ca, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yerel se\u00e7imler ile Galler ve \u0130sko\u00e7ya\u2019da parlamento se\u00e7imlerinin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Rabobank, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin zay\u0131f bir sonu\u00e7 almas\u0131n\u0131n Keir Starmer i\u00e7in parti i\u00e7inde liderlik tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 do\u011furabilece\u011fini; May\u0131s\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrebilecek kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek toptan enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fcretici ve tedarik\u00e7ilerin piyasada olu\u015fan enerji fiyatlar\u0131) siyasi riski art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.\n\nBanka, son d\u00f6nemdeki Sterlin deste\u011finin pozisyon ayarlamas\u0131ndan (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flemleri kapat\u0131p dengeye gelmesi) kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\n\nRabobank, Sterlin\u2019deki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli risklerin birikti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 bir enerji \u015foku, y\u0131l ortas\u0131na kadar enflasyon \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratabilecek temel risk olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Banka, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u015eubat 2026 tarihli ONS (Office for National Statistics: \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin resmi istatistik kurumu) verilerinin enerji ithalat maliyetlerinde beklenmedik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesine dayand\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politikas\u0131ndaki K\u0131s\u0131tlar<\/h3>\nBu enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131, BoE\u2019nin 2026\u2019da ilave faiz indirimine gitmesini \u00e7ok zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Banka, \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin \u201cstagflasyon\u201d bask\u0131lar\u0131na (stagflasyon: b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu ortamda enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) hassas oldu\u011funu; bunun BoE\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleme kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Piyasa en az bir faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yordu; bu beklentinin de\u011fi\u015fmesi Sterlin\u2019i bask\u0131layabilir.\n\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de ciddi bir sorun olmaya devam ediyor; 2022\u2019deki gilt piyasas\u0131 krizinden beri bu endi\u015fe kal\u0131c\u0131. DMO\u2019nun (Debt Management Office: \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin bor\u00e7 y\u00f6netim kurumu) son verisine g\u00f6re kamu borcu GSYH\u2019nin (gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la: \u00fclke ekonomisinin toplam \u00fcretimi) %99,5\u2019i seviyesinde. Bu durum, ekonomi yava\u015flarken h\u00fck\u00fcmetin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle olu\u015facak yeni harcama bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcveni daha da zay\u0131flatabilir.\n\nSiyasi belirsizlik de \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fl\u0131k. May\u0131s 2026\u2019daki yerel se\u00e7imlerde iktidardaki \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7 almas\u0131, Ba\u015fbakan Starmer\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 liderlik itiraz\u0131 riskini art\u0131rabilir ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yaratabilir. Ipsos anketlerine g\u00f6re \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin onay oran\u0131 Ocak\u2019tan bu yana 4 puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da piyasalar i\u00e7in somut bir risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini kur, faiz, emtia gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Sterlin\u2019de zay\u0131flamaya haz\u0131rlanmay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. GBP\/USD put opsiyonu almak (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar) veya put spread kurmak (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki put ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek koruma sa\u011flama stratejisi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Sterlin i\u00e7in 3 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) belirsizlik fiyatland\u0131k\u00e7a %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.\n\nSterlin\u2019e son d\u00f6nemde destek veren ana unsurun k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 (short kapatma: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonunun geri al\u0131mla kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) oldu\u011fu, bunun da etkisini yitirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Artan enflasyon riski, k\u0131r\u0131lgan kamu maliyesi ve siyasi r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar Sterlin\u2019de yeniden zay\u0131flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. 2025 sonundaki g\u00f6rece sakin d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla mevcut ortam\u0131n daha riskli oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sterlin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k\u201d alarm\u0131: Rabobank, enerji \u015fokunun T\u00dcFE\u2019yi 65 bp art\u0131r\u0131p BoE\u2019nin indirim alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7, gilt hassasiyeti ve se\u00e7im kaynakl\u0131 siyasi risklerle GBP\u2019de zay\u0131flama bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30018\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}