{"id":30014,"date":"2026-03-10T20:01:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T20:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/scotiabank-abd-dolari-zayifladikca-kanada-dolari-gucleniyor-swap-islemleri-risk-istahi-ve-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T20:01:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T20:01:30","slug":"scotiabank-abd-dolari-zayifladikca-kanada-dolari-gucleniyor-swap-islemleri-risk-istahi-ve-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/scotiabank-abd-dolari-zayifladikca-kanada-dolari-gucleniyor-swap-islemleri-risk-istahi-ve-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotiabank: ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a Kanada Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; swap i\u015flemleri, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f destekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Kanada dolar\u0131, zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (ham petrol) yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011finin (risk i\u015ftah\u0131) artmas\u0131yla dengelendi. Son bir haftada 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k swap spreadlerinin (swap faizi fark\u0131; iki para biriminde 1 y\u0131l vadeli faiz takas\u0131 oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) daralmas\u0131 da Kanada dolar\u0131na destek verdi. Piyasan\u0131n dikkati jeopolitik gerilimlerden uzakla\u015ft\u0131.\n\nUSD\/CAD, tahmini \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d olan 1,3375\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Modeldeki bu tahminin, ge\u00e7en haftaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f dalgalanmas\u0131) yans\u0131tmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcn kadar zamana ihtiya\u00e7 duyabilece\u011fi belirtildi.\n\nKanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn de \u015eubat ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri s\u00fcren yatay bantta (konsolidasyon: belirgin trend olmadan belirli aral\u0131kta hareket) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. USD\/CAD i\u00e7in 1,3530 seviyesinde destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviye) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte \u201chammer\u201d (\u00e7eki\u00e7: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen, olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret eden mum formasyonu) sinyaline dikkat \u00e7ekilirken, 1,35\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesinin k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.\n\nUSD\/CAD paritesi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la benzer \u015fekilde tan\u0131d\u0131k bir yatay hareket i\u00e7inde kal\u0131yor. 1,35\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fmaya devam ediyor. Bu seviye, ge\u00e7en haftaki kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k Kuzey Amerika makro verilerinin ard\u0131ndan artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen korunmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum, Kanada dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskinin \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n\nABD dolar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131, \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir ortama i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/CAD 1 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) %6,1\u2019e s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n. Bu ortamda strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vadede, biri al\u0131m biri sat\u0131m olmak \u00fczere iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyon satmak; fiyat sakin kal\u0131rsa prim geliri hedeflenir) veya iron condor (d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurulan, bant i\u00e7inde k\u00e2r hedefleyen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ama\u00e7, zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin azalmas\u0131) yararlanmak; parite bant d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlan\u0131rsa getiri artar.\n\nG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n mesajlar\u0131yla da destekleniyor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d modunda. Ge\u00e7en ay Kanada enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 geldi. ABD\u2019de PCE verisi (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) de benzer \u015fekilde yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ederek yak\u0131n vadede faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bu politika uyumu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 (range-bound: belirli aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyir) destekliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz f\u0131rsat: Kanada dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/CAD 1,3375 \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalsa da 1,35 alt\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek. Swap spread daralmas\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck %6,1 ima oynakl\u0131k \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30014\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}