{"id":30011,"date":"2026-03-10T19:02:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T19:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazinda-aksama-endiseleri-surerken-japonyanin-petrole-bagimli-yenindeki-zayiflama-ile-gbp-jpy-yukseliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T19:02:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T19:02:13","slug":"abd-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazinda-aksama-endiseleri-surerken-japonyanin-petrole-bagimli-yenindeki-zayiflama-ile-gbp-jpy-yukseliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazinda-aksama-endiseleri-surerken-japonyanin-petrole-bagimli-yenindeki-zayiflama-ile-gbp-jpy-yukseliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda aksama endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrerken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 yenindeki zay\u0131flama ile GBP\/JPY y\u00fckseliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"GBP\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Yen\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalarda, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan yap\u0131lan sevkiyat\u0131 (deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131ma) aksatabilece\u011fi ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 (enerji tedariki) etkileyebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite 212,25 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve bir ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131.\n\nJaponya ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %95\u2019ini Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019i H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. Sevkiyatta uzun s\u00fcrecek bir aksama, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bask\u0131layabilir.\n\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 Riski ve Yen\u2019in Hassasiyeti<\/h3>\nPetrol piyasalar\u0131nda \u201cjeopolitik risk primi\u201d (siyasi\/askeri gerilim nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) olu\u015ftu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n fiyatlar Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi: WTI %5,84, Brent %3,69 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bitti\u011fi\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nG7 \u00fclkeleri, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) \u00fczerinden koordineli petrol rezervi kullan\u0131m\u0131 (stratejik stoklardan piyasaya petrol verilmesi) konusunu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Japonya Ticaret Bakan\u0131 Ryosei Akazawa, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n plan\u0131 destekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G7 Enerji Bakanlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde toplanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019da hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu da merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015fesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Sterlin, piyasalar\u0131n mart ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz indirimi beklentisini azaltmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek buldu. Daha \u00f6nce mart indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olarak fiyatlan\u0131yordu (piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k). Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) da yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 erteleyebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nJaponya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 4. \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; \u00f6nceki %0,1\u2019di. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme (mevcut \u00e7eyrek h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131la uyarlanm\u0131\u015f hali) %0,2\u2019den %1,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve %1,2 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de BRC benzer ma\u011faza perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (ayn\u0131 ma\u011fazalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131) \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,7 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki %2,4\u2019t\u00fc ve %2,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\n

Piyasa Zemini ve Faiz Fark\u0131<\/h3>\n2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda Yen, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle belirgin zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithal petrole y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k (risk noktas\u0131) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve GBP\/JPY 212,00 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Piyasa o d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek bir jeopolitik risk primi fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\nAncak ge\u00e7en y\u0131l IEA\u2019n\u0131n stratejik rezervleri koordineli bi\u00e7imde devreye almas\u0131 piyasay\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirdi ve Brent ham petrol zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi. 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru fiyatlar dengelendi, bu da Yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. \u015eu anda Brent varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda ve ilk panik \u015fimdilik zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nSterlin taraf\u0131nda ise, Mart 2025 i\u00e7in beklenen BoE faiz indirimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019ne (ONS) g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu durum, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu devam eden \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) Sterlin\u2019e destek verdi.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoJ, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ocak ay\u0131nda negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131; bu, para politikas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fimdi. Art\u0131\u015f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olsa da gecelik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 (bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 faizi) %0,0-%0,1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, para politikas\u0131nda yeni bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret etti ve Yen i\u00e7in, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l olmayan bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme unsuru olu\u015fturdu.\n\nBu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki net y\u00fckseli\u015ften daha karma\u015f\u0131k olabilir. GBP\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) artt\u0131. 1 ayl\u0131k kontrat, petrol \u015foku d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketler fiyatl\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon yerine opsiyonlarla bu dalgal\u0131 seyre (sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) uygun stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.\n\nGBP\/JPY 208,50 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, \u201cuzun straddle\u201d gibi stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Uzun straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) al\u0131m (call) ve sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu birlikte almakt\u0131r; fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Ancak parite yatay seyrederse \u201coynakl\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d (volatilitenin h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle opsiyon primlerinin erimesi) riski vard\u0131r. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n tek tarafl\u0131 i\u015flemi art\u0131k geride kald\u0131.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131yor: Yen enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla zay\u0131flarken GBP\/JPY 212,25\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Petrol risk primi, BoE-BOJ faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve artan opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 paritede sert hareket potansiyeli yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30011\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}