{"id":30010,"date":"2026-03-10T18:03:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T18:03:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-baur-cinin-guclu-cevher-ithalati-bakir-uretimini-artiriyor-kongo-arzi-ise-risk-altinda\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T18:03:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T18:03:46","slug":"commerzbanktan-baur-cinin-guclu-cevher-ithalati-bakir-uretimini-artiriyor-kongo-arzi-ise-risk-altinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-baur-cinin-guclu-cevher-ithalati-bakir-uretimini-artiriyor-kongo-arzi-ise-risk-altinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Baur: \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc cevher ithalat\u0131 bak\u0131r \u00fcretimini art\u0131r\u0131yor, Kongo arz\u0131 ise risk alt\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki metal ithalat\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. \u00c7elik \u00fcretimi d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen demir cevheri ithalat\u0131 Ocak ve \u015eubat\u2019ta ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %10 artt\u0131.\n\n\u00c7in\u2019in bak\u0131r cevheri ve konsantre (zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f cevher) ithalat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,9 y\u00fckseldi. Hacim ayl\u0131k ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 milyon ton oldu; son aylara g\u00f6re sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. \u00c7in Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131 genelde y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ithalat\u0131 azalt\u0131r.\n\n

Rafine Bak\u0131r \u0130thalat\u0131 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/h3>\nRafine bak\u0131r (i\u015flenmi\u015f saf bak\u0131r) ve bak\u0131r \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ithalat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %16 geriledi. Bu sevkiyatlar ayl\u0131k ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 350 bin tonla son aylar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\n\u0130thalat e\u011filimi, \u00c7in\u2019de bak\u0131r \u00fcretiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, \u015eubat\u2019ta ar\u0131tma ve rafinaj \u00fccretleri (madenin, cevheri i\u015fleyip metale \u00e7evirmesi i\u00e7in verilen hizmet bedeli) negatifte kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; yani izabeciler (metal eritme tesisleri) bak\u0131r\u0131 rafine edebilmek i\u00e7in madenlere \u201cek prim\u201d \u00f6demek zorunda kald\u0131.\n\nAyr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel bak\u0131r cevheri \u00fcretiminin %14\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc yapan Kongo i\u00e7in arz (tedarik) riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir engelleme, K\u00f6rfez\u2019den H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan k\u00fck\u00fcrt ihracat\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu durum, bak\u0131r \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan s\u00fclf\u00fcrik asidin bulunabilirli\u011fini azaltabilir ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda madencili\u011fi aksatabilir.\n\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep i\u015faretleri ile artan arz riski aras\u0131nda net bir \u00e7eli\u015fki var. \u00c7in\u2019in imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) \u015eubat\u2019ta beklentileri a\u015farak 51,2 oldu. Bak\u0131r cevheri ithalat\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 artt\u0131; bu, izabecilerin \u00fcretimi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tabloyu spot ar\u0131tma \u00fccretleri (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131) da do\u011fruluyor: \u00fccretler, izabecilerin k\u0131t hammaddeyi bulmak i\u00e7in ek \u00f6deme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecek \u015fekilde ton ba\u015f\u0131na -5 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere geriledi.\n\n

Kongo\u2019daki Arz Geli\u015fmelerini \u0130zleyin<\/h3>\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana belirleyici, k\u00fcresel bak\u0131r \u00fcretiminin %14\u2019\u00fcnden sorumlu Demokratik Kongo Cumhuriyeti\u2019ndeki arz durumu olacak. K\u00f6rfez\u2019den k\u00fck\u00fcrt ihracat\u0131ndaki s\u00fcren engelleme, b\u00f6lgede bak\u0131r\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131nda gereken s\u00fclf\u00fcrik asit tedarikini do\u011frudan tehdit ediyor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin ilk veriler, DKC\u2019nin bak\u0131r ihracat\u0131nda %2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor; bu da k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n etkisinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ve opsiyonlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyen) pozisyonu destekliyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; May\u0131s ve Haziran 2026 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere odaklanarak tedarik kesintisi haberleriyle olu\u015fabilecek fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 hedeflenebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, riskin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) bir y\u00f6ntemle y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.\n\nLME (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131) bak\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu s\u0131ralar ton ba\u015f\u0131na 9.550 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread (iki opsiyonlu strateji) daha temkinli olabilir. Bu, ayn\u0131 vade i\u00e7in bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131rken, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonunu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ama makul bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; bu senaryo olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\n2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Peru ve \u015eili\u2019de \u00fcretim endi\u015feleri, talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve benzer bir tablo olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz kayna\u011f\u0131 risk alt\u0131na girdi\u011finde piyasan\u0131n fiyat\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden belirledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Kongo kaynakl\u0131 mevcut durum da o d\u00f6nemi and\u0131r\u0131yor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019in metal ithalat\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k: demir cevheri %10 artarken rafine bak\u0131r %16 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bak\u0131r cevheri %4,9 y\u00fckseldi; izabe \u00fccretleri rekor negatif. Kongo arz riski piyasay\u0131 tetikte tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30010\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}