{"id":30007,"date":"2026-03-10T18:01:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T18:01:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bbhden-elias-haddad-aud-usd-07100un-uzerine-yukseldi-hedef-07150-rbanin-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T18:01:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T18:01:47","slug":"bbhden-elias-haddad-aud-usd-07100un-uzerine-yukseldi-hedef-07150-rbanin-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bbhden-elias-haddad-aud-usd-07100un-uzerine-yukseldi-hedef-07150-rbanin-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BBH\u2019den Elias Haddad: AUD\/USD 0,7100\u2019un \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi, hedef 0,7150; RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD 0,7100\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u015eubat ortas\u0131ndaki zirveye yak\u0131n 0,7150\u2019ye y\u00f6neldi. Son d\u00f6nemdeki Avustralya i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verileri, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na dair beklentileri belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi.\n\nBaz\u0131 istihdam g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131flad\u0131. NAB i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131 endeksi (\u015firketlerin i\u015fe al\u0131m e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) \u015eubat\u2019ta 2 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek +3\u2019e indi; bu seviye, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fla uyumlu.\n\n<h3>Labour Confidence Signals<\/h3>\nT\u00fcketici verileri de istihdama dair g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Westpac\u2013MI i\u015fsizlik beklentileri endeksi (hanelerin i\u015fsizli\u011fin artaca\u011f\u0131na dair alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) Mart\u2019ta %3,8 artarak 134,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu de\u011fer uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131 olan 129,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde.\n\nBir sonraki RBA faiz karar\u0131 17 Mart\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Nakit faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,01) art\u0131\u015fla faizin %4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %55 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nRaporda at\u0131f yap\u0131lan RBA\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7 modelleri, pozitif \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na (ekonominin kapasitesinin \u00fczerinde \u00fcretmesi) ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 kapasite k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131na (\u00fcretim olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n zorlanmas\u0131) i\u015faret ediyor. Makale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fini ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\n<h3>Options Strategy Implications<\/h3>\nRBA\u2019n\u0131n gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025\u2019teki kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Politika faizi (resmi nakit faiz) son d\u00f6rt toplant\u0131d\u0131r %4,35\u2019te sabit tutulurken, piyasa bir kez daha sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lma ihtimalini %95 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergesinin (enflasyonun ayl\u0131k takibi) enflasyonun %3,4\u2019te yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi, bankaya temkinli duru\u015funu de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e veriyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, y\u00f6n tahminine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlardan (kurun y\u00fckseli\u015f\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne bahis) oynakl\u0131k ve bant i\u015flemlerine (fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na dayal\u0131) odakl\u0131 stratejilere ge\u00e7i\u015f sinyali veriyor. AUD\/USD i\u00e7in bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,2\u2019ye geriledi; bu, son iki y\u0131ldaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu tablo, gelecek haftaki RBA karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi beklenmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nAvustralya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Ocak verilerinde %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, i\u00e7eride \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir s\u00fcrpriz i\u00e7in bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon satarak prim toplamak (opsiyon primi: sat\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) ve iron condor (kurun belirli bantta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon kombinasyonu) gibi bir strateji \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda etkili olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kurun \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flar; mevcut verilerle bu olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD 0,7100\u2019\u00fc a\u015f\u0131p 0,7150\u2019ye g\u00f6z k\u0131rp\u0131yor: \u0130stihdam ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni zay\u0131f, RBA\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fim sinyali yok. Piyasa faizde %95 \u201csabit\u201d, volatiliteler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30007"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30007\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}