{"id":30004,"date":"2026-03-10T17:03:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T17:03:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/adp-verileri-abdde-dort-haftalik-ortalama-istihdam-degisiminin-128-binden-155-bine-yukseldigini-gosterdi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:03:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T17:03:21","slug":"adp-verileri-abdde-dort-haftalik-ortalama-istihdam-degisiminin-128-binden-155-bine-yukseldigini-gosterdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/adp-verileri-abdde-dort-haftalik-ortalama-istihdam-degisiminin-128-binden-155-bine-yukseldigini-gosterdi\/","title":{"rendered":"ADP verileri, ABD\u2019de d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalama istihdam de\u011fi\u015fiminin 12,8 binden 15,5 bine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi"},"content":{"rendered":"Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 14 \u015eubat itibar\u0131yla 15,5 bin oldu.\n\n\u00d6nceki veri 12,8 bindi.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131nda \u0130vme Zay\u0131fl\u0131yor<\/h3>\nADP istihdam verisinin 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 15,5 bine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi temkinli de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Bu seviye, tarihsel olarak zay\u0131f bir yeni istihdam h\u0131z\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde h\u0131z kesti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz e\u011filimle de uyumlu.\n\nGe\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan resmi Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 toplam istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131: \u015eubat ay\u0131nda sadece 85 bin yeni i\u015f eklendi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ayr\u0131ca son JOLTS verisinde (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u015fe giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 izleyen istatistik) a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 2022\u2019den bu yana ilk kez 8 milyonun alt\u0131na indi. Bu g\u00f6stergeler, ekonomide so\u011fuman\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.\n\nBu nedenle, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine faiz indirimi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye daha yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesini bekliyoruz. Enflasyon yerine b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleme oda\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor: CME FedWatch verisine g\u00f6re May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puanl\u0131k) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n\nHisse endeksleri taraf\u0131nda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemleri yapanlar (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler, \u00f6rn. opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem), \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc haber iyi haberdir\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimalini fiyatlayabilir. S&#038;P 500 gibi endekslerde daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 beklentisiyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in, Nisan veya May\u0131s vadeli SPX \u00fczerinde \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu yay\u0131lmas\u0131: ayn\u0131 vade i\u00e7inde farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p satma stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Oynakl\u0131k VIX ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) h\u00e2l\u00e2 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda; bu da opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyon primi: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) \u015fimdilik g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\nFaiz piyasas\u0131nda (tahvil faizi piyasas\u0131) temel strateji, getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon almakt\u0131r. Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri (Treasury futures: ABD tahvilleri \u00fczerine vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu almak veya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak (SOFR: ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faiz g\u00f6stergesi; vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle gelecekteki faiz beklentisi fiyatlan\u0131r) Fed\u2019in politika de\u011fi\u015fimine oynayan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda. Bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde ima edilen faizler zaten geriledi, ancak Fed\u2019in bir faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc (pe\u015f pe\u015fe faiz indirimleri d\u00f6nemi) ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalini vermesi halinde hareket alan\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir.\n\n<h3>Dolar \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131 Art\u0131yor<\/h3>\nBu ortam, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleriyle faiz fark\u0131 darald\u0131k\u00e7a ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de olumsuzdur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar DXY (U.S. Dollar Index: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 veya EUR\/USD vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinden euroda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda Fed\u2019in politika y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fine dair ilk sinyallerle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam\u0131n 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 15,5 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak tablo zay\u0131f. NFP, JOLTS so\u011fumay\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Fed\u2019e g\u00fcvercin bask\u0131 artarken, faiz indirimi, borsaya destek, dolara ise bask\u0131 getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30004\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}