{"id":29998,"date":"2026-03-10T15:07:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:07:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/subat-ayinda-abdde-nfib-kucuk-isletmeler-iyimserlik-endeksi-beklentilerin-altinda-kalarak-997-tahminine-karsi-988-seviyesinde-gerceklesti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T15:07:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:07:45","slug":"subat-ayinda-abdde-nfib-kucuk-isletmeler-iyimserlik-endeksi-beklentilerin-altinda-kalarak-997-tahminine-karsi-988-seviyesinde-gerceklesti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/subat-ayinda-abdde-nfib-kucuk-isletmeler-iyimserlik-endeksi-beklentilerin-altinda-kalarak-997-tahminine-karsi-988-seviyesinde-gerceklesti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eubat ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de NFIB K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u0130\u015fletmeler \u0130yimserlik Endeksi beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak 99,7 tahminine kar\u015f\u0131 98,8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de NFIB K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u0130\u015fletme \u0130yimserlik Endeksi \u015fubatta 98,8 oldu. Bu, 99,7 olan beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\nA\u00e7\u0131klamada 99,7\u2019lik beklenti ile 98,8\u2019lik ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen de\u011fer kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ki seviye aras\u0131ndaki fark 0,9 puan.\n\n

K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u0130\u015fletme G\u00fcveni ve Piyasa Riski<\/h3>\nK\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletme iyimserli\u011finin beklentinin alt\u0131na inmesi, ABD i\u00e7 ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131 i\u015fareti. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u015firketleri izleyen Russell 2000 endeksi bu t\u00fcr g\u00fcven de\u011fi\u015fimlerine daha duyarl\u0131 olabilir. K\u0131sa vadede, IWM borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonunda (ETF: Endeksi takip eden, borsada hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) nisan vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: Fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma (hedge: Portf\u00f6ydeki kayb\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem) sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nBu veri, 2024 ve 2025 boyunca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletme g\u00fcvenindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha da \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Endeks, uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorland\u0131; bu da tek seferlik bir sapmadan \u00e7ok s\u00fcren bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle \u015fubat verisinin etkisi daha y\u00fcksek.\n\nG\u00fcven zay\u0131flarken, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: Piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 14 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; yeni veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu seviye rehavete i\u015faret edebilir. Daha geni\u015f bir piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli korunma i\u00e7in nisan veya may\u0131s vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: Fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nFed bu t\u00fcr \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri yak\u0131ndan izler; bu nedenle 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli i\u015flemlerden piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re piyasa, 4. \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fimde NFIB gibi zay\u0131flayan verilerin pay\u0131 var.\n\n

Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Tahvil Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\nFaiz beklentileri de\u011fi\u015firken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla sabit getirili piyasalarda (fixed income: Faiz\/kupon geliri sa\u011flayan \u00fcr\u00fcnler, \u00f6rn. tahvil) g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Taktik bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon (long: Fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) al\u0131nabilir. Opsiyon kullananlar i\u00e7in, TLT gibi uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne daha az sermayeyle (capital-efficient: Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck nakitle benzer etki) maruz kalma sa\u011flayabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de NFIB \u015fubatta 98,8 ile 99,7 beklentinin 0,9 puan alt\u0131nda: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletme g\u00fcveni alarm veriyor. Russell 2000 bask\u0131lanabilir; VIX 14 rehavet. Put\/hedge, VIX call, tahvil long \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29998\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}