{"id":29990,"date":"2026-03-10T13:08:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ingden-chris-turner-eur-usd-11500-seviyesini-savundu-petrol-kaynakli-faiz-yeniden-fiyatlamasi-euro-sterlini-destekliyor-swap-farki-daraliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T13:08:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:08:29","slug":"ingden-chris-turner-eur-usd-11500-seviyesini-savundu-petrol-kaynakli-faiz-yeniden-fiyatlamasi-euro-sterlini-destekliyor-swap-farki-daraliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ingden-chris-turner-eur-usd-11500-seviyesini-savundu-petrol-kaynakli-faiz-yeniden-fiyatlamasi-euro-sterlini-destekliyor-swap-farki-daraliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ING\u2019den Chris Turner: EUR\/USD 1,1500 seviyesini savundu; petrol kaynakl\u0131 faiz yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 euro\/sterlini destekliyor, swap fark\u0131 daral\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, \u00f6nceki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen 1.1500 seviyesini korudu. Opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine i\u015faret etmedi. Bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat fark\u0131; piyasan\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne daha \u00e7ok korunma arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) euro sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.\n\nPetrol kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan faiz piyasalar\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniledi. Referans olarak, bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlanan bir ayl\u0131k OIS (gecelik faiz oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 swap; merkez bankas\u0131 politika faizi beklentisini izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) al\u0131nd\u0131. G10 genelinde ortalama hareket yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puan (bp; baz puan, y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,01%) art\u0131\u015f oldu.\n\n<h3>Euro Dolar Kilit Deste\u011fini Koruyor<\/h3>\nABD tahvil faizleri 25 bp y\u00fckseldi; bunun nedeni, \u015fokun ABD enflasyonuna etkisinin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi. Avrupa\u2019da EUR ESTR (Euro b\u00f6lgesinde gecelik referans faiz) 65 bp, GBP OIS (Sterlin gecelik endeks swap\u0131) 80 bp daha y\u00fcksek fiyatland\u0131.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim, EUR:USD iki y\u0131ll\u0131k swap faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki para biriminde faiz swap\u0131 fark\u0131; sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve kur y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc etkiler) daraltabilir ve 1.1500 civar\u0131nda deste\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. \u0130lk diren\u00e7 1.1650\u2019de izleniyor; daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f ate\u015fkese y\u00f6nelik ilerlemeye ba\u011fl\u0131.\n\nBug\u00fcn, 10 Mart 2026\u2019da, 2025\u2019teki enerji \u015fokuna benzer bir tablo yeniden olu\u015fuyor. O d\u00f6nemde EUR\/USD\u2019de 1.1500 seviyesi sa\u011flam bir taban olurken, piyasa Avrupa faizlerini ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha sert yukar\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benzer dinamik tekrar devrede ve mevcut piyasa i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek sunuyor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Farklar\u0131 Hik\u00e2yeyi Belirliyor<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimlerin yeniden artmas\u0131 enerji \u015foku riskini y\u00fckseltiyor. Son veriler, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 destekliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u015eubat 2026 HICP \u00f6nc\u00fc (HICP: uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu; \u201cflash\u201d \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmin) verisi beklentiyi a\u015farak %2,8 geldi. ABD\u2019de son T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalarak %3,1 seviyesinde. Bu, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi) bir \u00e7izgiye itilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nOpsiyon piyasas\u0131nda da EUR\/USD\u2019de sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma korkusunun zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal, EUR put talebinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; yani t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon alm\u0131yor. Bu, 2025\u2019te deste\u011fin korundu\u011fu d\u00f6nemdeki alg\u0131yla benzer.\n\nAna unsur, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k swap piyasas\u0131nda EUR:USD spread\u2019i (fark) -90 baz puandan, sadece ge\u00e7en ay -75 baz puana s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, euro ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha cazip hale getirir ve 1.1500 deste\u011finin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda korunaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.\n\nBu nedenle EUR\/USD i\u00e7in ilk diren\u00e7 1.1650 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, yeni enerji arz\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemeli; paritenin bu \u201ctavan\u0131\u201d a\u015fma kapasitesini belirleyecek olan bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar olacak.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD 1.1500\u2019de tutunuyor: opsiyonlar sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmiyor. Enerji \u015foku sonras\u0131 G10\u2019da OIS\u2019ler y\u00fckseldi; Avrupa daha \u015fahin, faiz fark\u0131 daral\u0131yor. \u0130lk diren\u00e7 1.1650.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}