{"id":29984,"date":"2026-03-10T13:04:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:04:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/carsten-brzeski-ocak-ayinda-ihracat-ve-ithalatta-gorulen-sert-dususler-almanyanin-2026-toparlanma-umutlarina-iliskin-iyimserligi-zayiflatiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T13:04:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:04:27","slug":"carsten-brzeski-ocak-ayinda-ihracat-ve-ithalatta-gorulen-sert-dususler-almanyanin-2026-toparlanma-umutlarina-iliskin-iyimserligi-zayiflatiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/carsten-brzeski-ocak-ayinda-ihracat-ve-ithalatta-gorulen-sert-dususler-almanyanin-2026-toparlanma-umutlarina-iliskin-iyimserligi-zayiflatiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Carsten Brzeski: Ocak ay\u0131nda ihracat ve ithalatta g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 toparlanma umutlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin iyimserli\u011fi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 ocakta bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re %2,3 geriledi; aral\u0131kta %4,0 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130thalat ise ayl\u0131k bazda %5,9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 21,2 milyar avroya y\u00fckseldi; bu, 2024 yaz\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye.\n\nOcak d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, Almanya i\u00e7in y\u0131la zay\u0131f bir ba\u015flang\u0131ca i\u015faret ediyor. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, sanayi \u00fcretimi, in\u015faat ve ticaret ocakta geriledi.\n\n<h3>\u0130hracatta R\u00fczg\u00e2r Tersine D\u00f6n\u00fcyor<\/h3>  \nABD\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri (ithalata ek vergi) ve bir Y\u00fcksek Mahkeme karar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle ihracat ko\u015fullar\u0131 zor. \u00c7in\u2019de talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc pazarlarda ve AB i\u00e7inde daha agresif rekabeti ve \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olunan nadir toprak elementleri (y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve savunmada kullan\u0131lan kritik mineraller) de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nVeriler, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Raporda, mali te\u015fvikin (kamu harcamalar\u0131\/vergiler yoluyla ekonomiyi destekleme) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisi de yer al\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki beklenmedik toparlanma sonras\u0131 olu\u015fan iyimserlik, ocak d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileriyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Y\u0131la bu zay\u0131f ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7, beklenen toparlanman\u0131n kesin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Alman ve Avrupa varl\u0131klar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almak gerekiyor.\n\nBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in DAX endeksi \u00fczerinde nisan ve may\u0131s vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u015eubat Ifo \u0130\u015f \u0130klimi endeksi 85,2\u2019ye indi. \u015eubat i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc fabrika sipari\u015fleri de %1,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterince, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131; fiyatlar\u0131n gerileyece\u011fi beklentisi) duru\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, riskin ba\u015ftan belli oldu\u011fu (maksimum zarar \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) bir bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flayan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.\n\n<h3>Riskten Ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa Konumlanma<\/h3>  \nEuro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme motoru Almanya\u2019daki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenir. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir duru\u015fu savunmas\u0131 zorla\u015f\u0131r; bu da para birimini daha az cazip k\u0131lar. EUR\/USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; parite ge\u00e7en sonbahardaki dipleri yeniden test edebilir.\n\nBu t\u00fcr belirsizlik d\u00f6nemleri genelde g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6neli\u015fi art\u0131r\u0131r; bu da Alman devlet tahvillerine yarar. 2011\u2019deki egemen bor\u00e7 krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131karken Bund getirileri d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund vadeli kontrat\u0131 almak, hisse piyasas\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dengeleme (hedge; zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nABD tarifeleri ve \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 \u201c\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fok\u201dun (talep zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, artan rekabet, kritik girdilere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k) k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi beklenmiyor; bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen nadir toprak elementlerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ve kendi pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda \u00c7inli \u00fcreticilerin artan rekabeti, yap\u0131sal bir sorun (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede de\u011fi\u015fmesi zor) olu\u015fturuyor. Bu unsurlar, ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca temkinli ve savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fu destekliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alarm zilleri: Almanya\u2019da ihracat ocakta %2,3, ithalat %5,9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; fazla 21,2 milyar avro ile zirveye yak\u0131n. Tarife-belirsizlik ve \u00c7in \u015foku riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor; DAX put, EUR\/USD short, Bund hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29984"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29984\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}