{"id":29972,"date":"2026-03-10T10:13:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T10:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-volkmar-baur-subat-ayinda-ihracattaki-sicrama-buyuk-dis-ticaret-fazlasiyla-yuani-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T10:13:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T10:13:08","slug":"commerzbanktan-volkmar-baur-subat-ayinda-ihracattaki-sicrama-buyuk-dis-ticaret-fazlasiyla-yuani-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-volkmar-baur-subat-ayinda-ihracattaki-sicrama-buyuk-dis-ticaret-fazlasiyla-yuani-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Volkmar Baur: \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ihracattaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131yla yuan\u0131 destekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131 \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 artt\u0131. \u0130thalat da y\u00fckseldi ancak ihracattan daha yava\u015f artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.\n\nSon 12 ayda \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,2\u2019sine ula\u015ft\u0131. Ocak\u2013\u015fubat d\u00f6nemi toplam fazlas\u0131 da GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,2\u2019si olarak bildirildi.\n\n

Kur Hareketleri ve D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi<\/h3>\nCNY (\u00c7in yuan\u0131) y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki ay\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da yaln\u0131zca hafif y\u00fckseldi.\n\nABD\u2019ye ihracat %11 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. CNY\u2019deki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe ra\u011fmen AB\u2019ye ihracat %27\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131.\n\nYaz\u0131da, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtildi.\n\n2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00c7in ihracat verilerine bak\u0131yoruz: \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %40\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu tablo, \u00f6nceki 12 ayda GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,2\u2019sine denk gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 yaratt\u0131. O d\u00f6nemin ana mesaj\u0131, yuan\u0131n dolar ve euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yd\u0131.\n\n

2026\u2019da Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\nBu tablo, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki durumla belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131. Son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in resmi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) \u015fubat 2026\u2019da 49,9 geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etmiyor. Bu zay\u0131flama, 2025\u2019teki ihracat ivmesinin ta\u015f\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu ayr\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in yuan\u0131ndaki kur pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. 2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011ferlenme ticareti bozmad\u0131; ancak mevcut daha zay\u0131f ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ihracat\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in yetkililerin daha fazla de\u011ferlenmeye direnebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. USD\/CNY (dolar\/yuan kuru) 7,28 civar\u0131nda dengelenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu da, yuan\u0131n dar bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik opsiyon (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.\n\n2025\u2019te \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ABD\u2019den AB\u2019ye ticaret kaymas\u0131, Avrupa borsalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019deki yava\u015flamaya daha duyarl\u0131 h\u00e2le getiriyor. O d\u00f6nemde AB\u2019ye ihracat %27\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi \u00c7in talebindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Alman sanayi hisselerini daha fazla bask\u0131layabilir. Bu risk i\u00e7in DAX endeksinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) de\u011ferlendirmek, Avrupa ihracat\u0131nda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u201chedge\u201d (riskten korunma) arac\u0131 olabilir.\n\nZay\u0131f imalat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc sanayi emtialar\u0131n\u0131 da bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6nem fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemi\u015fti. Ancak Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131, \u00c7in talebine dair endi\u015felerle son zirvelerinden %3\u2019ten fazla geriledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n stok seviyelerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekir; stoklarda art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrerse emtia vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u201cshort\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 do\u011fabilir.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki daha karma\u015f\u0131k h\u00e2le geldi. 2025\u2019te CNY euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131yd\u0131. \u015eimdi ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalan enflasyon nedeniyle temkinli duru\u015f sinyali vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu, para politikalar\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fma anlam\u0131na geliyor ve EUR\/CNY paritesinde (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir. Bu ortamda \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 stratejiler (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon kurulumu) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019de ihracat \u015fubatta %40\u2019a yak\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, d\u0131\u015f fazla GSYH\u2019nin %6,2\u2019sine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak 2026 PMI 49,9: momentum zay\u0131f. Yuan dar bant, DAX\u2019ta hedge, bak\u0131rda short, EUR\/CNY\u2019de straddle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29972\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}