{"id":29946,"date":"2026-03-10T04:02:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T04:02:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/guney-korenin-dorduncu-ceyrek-gsyhsi-ceyreklik-bazda-02-daraldi-03-dusus-ongoren-beklentilerin-uzerinde-gerceklesti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T04:02:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T04:02:04","slug":"guney-korenin-dorduncu-ceyrek-gsyhsi-ceyreklik-bazda-02-daraldi-03-dusus-ongoren-beklentilerin-uzerinde-gerceklesti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/guney-korenin-dorduncu-ceyrek-gsyhsi-ceyreklik-bazda-02-daraldi-03-dusus-ongoren-beklentilerin-uzerinde-gerceklesti\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,2 darald\u0131; %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6ren beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti"},"content":{"rendered":"G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin **gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH)** (\u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretimi) d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re **%0,2** d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, piyasadaki **%0,3 daralma** beklentisinden daha iyi geldi.\n\nSonu\u00e7, \u00fcretimin bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri ile tahmin aras\u0131ndaki fark **0,1 puan** oldu.\n\n2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH\u2019nin **%0,2 daralmas\u0131**, bekledi\u011fimiz **-%0,3** daralmadan daha olumlu bir tablo. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapma, piyasalar\u0131n olumsuz senaryonun \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 zaten fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde **KOSPI endeksinde** ani ve sert bir sat\u0131\u015f beklenmemeli.\n\nBuna ra\u011fmen bu negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme, **Kore wonu** \u00fczerinde temel bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. **USD\/KRW kuru** (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kore wonu) halihaz\u0131rda **1.345** civar\u0131nda seyrederken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar wonun daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alabilir. **USD\/KRW\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option)** (kur y\u00fckselirse k\u00e2r sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, **Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOK)** daha **g\u00fcvercin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli, faiz indirimi e\u011filimli) bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesi beklentisiyle uygulanabilir bir strateji.\n\nBu verinin ard\u0131ndan BOK zor bir dengeye geldi. Ekonomik yava\u015flama **faiz indirimi** ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, 2026 \u015eubat enflasyon verisi **T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi)** **%2,9** ile hedefin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fki, BOK\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyrek boyunca faizleri b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla sabit tutmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da hisselerde belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k **\u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler** (gelece\u011fe dair sinyal veren veriler) farkl\u0131 bir hik\u00e2ye anlat\u0131yor. 2026 ba\u015f\u0131na ait d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, ekonominin kritik lokomotifi olan **yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip)** ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda **%50\u2019den fazla** artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00fcresel teknoloji d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcndeki bu toparlanma, ekonomide dip seviyenin geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, gecikmeli gelen bu GSYH verisi ile mevcut durum aras\u0131nda uyumsuzluk yarat\u0131yor.\n\nBu ayr\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131nda, daha temkinli bir **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat e\u011filimine odaklan\u0131rken i\u00e7 talepten kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma kurmak olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ihracat toparlanmas\u0131na liderlik eden b\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken \u015firketlerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu** almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu pozisyonu dengelemek i\u00e7in, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime daha duyarl\u0131 **endekslerde** (perakende veya finans hisseleri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeksler gibi) **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option)** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse k\u00e2r sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131nabilir.\n\nGeriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu yava\u015flama, 2020\u2019deki k\u00fcresel kapanmalar d\u00f6neminde ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. O d\u00f6nem yayg\u0131n bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 2025\u2019teki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ise daha \u00e7ok **i\u00e7 talepte** yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130hracattaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma, bu negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz daralma ama panik yok: G\u00fcney Kore GSYH 4\u00c7\u2019de %0,2 geriledi, beklentiden iyi. KOSPI\u2019da sert sat\u0131\u015f zay\u0131f ihtimal; won bask\u0131da, BOK temkinli. \u00c7ip ihracat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29946\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}