{"id":29939,"date":"2026-03-10T02:03:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T02:03:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dxy-9970-civarinda-15-haftanin-zirvesini-gordukten-sonra-020-gerileyerek-9900-seviyelerinde-kapandi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T02:03:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T02:03:52","slug":"dxy-9970-civarinda-15-haftanin-zirvesini-gordukten-sonra-020-gerileyerek-9900-seviyelerinde-kapandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dxy-9970-civarinda-15-haftanin-zirvesini-gordukten-sonra-020-gerileyerek-9900-seviyelerinde-kapandi\/","title":{"rendered":"DXY, 99,70 civar\u0131nda 15 haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %0,20 gerileyerek 99,00 seviyelerinde kapand\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) Pazartesi yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 geriledi. G\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde 99,70 civar\u0131nda 15 haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015fluk (gap: fiyat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) yapt\u0131, ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn sonunda 99,00\u2019a do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. B\u00f6ylece DXY, ocak sonundaki 95,56 dip seviyesinden 6 haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 puan y\u00fckseldikten sonra solukland\u0131.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 krizinin etkisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Piyasalar, ABD\u2019nin enerji ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00fclkenin enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kendi \u00fcretimiyle kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131) nedeniyle arz \u015fokuna (sava\u015f\/kriz gibi nedenlerle ani arz azalmas\u0131) daha az maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentisi bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in tek bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019i; 25 bp = %0,25) indirime indi; bu indirimin muhtemelen eyl\u00fclde gelmesi bekleniyor. Daha \u00f6nce piyasalar iki indirim fiyatl\u0131yordu.\n\n<h3>Fed Politikas\u0131 Ve Kritik Enflasyon Verileri<\/h3>\nFed politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutuyor. Ocak ay\u0131 FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurulun toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) baz\u0131 yetkililerin, enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini konu\u015ftu\u011fu belirtildi. \u015eubat T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; beklenti ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4.\n\nCuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, ocak \u00e7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) i\u00e7in beklenti ayl\u0131k %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3. \u00d6nc\u00fc d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek GSYH (GDP: gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (annualised: \u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %1,4 bekleniyor. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi mart t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi de 56,6\u2019dan 55\u2019e gerileyecek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 krizi DXY\u2019yi 99,70 civar\u0131nda 15 haftan\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi (risk art\u0131nca daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) ve Fed beklentilerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla (piyasan\u0131n yeni beklentilere g\u00f6re fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla ayarlamas\u0131) desteklenmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn ise jeopolitik risk primi (piyasalar\u0131n risk i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ekstra getiri) azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in DXY daha sakin bir bantta, 103 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131lki enerji \u015foku, olu\u015fan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in Fed\u2019i 2025 yaz\u0131 boyunca faiz art\u0131rmaya zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS) verilerine g\u00f6re enflasyon %4,2 ile zirve yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi ise son \u015eubat 2026 T\u00dcFE raporu enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019e so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor ve piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Fed politika faizini %4,50-%4,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutuyor. T\u00fcrev piyasalar (fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon) temmuzda ilk faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nBu tabloda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, dolar\u0131n yatay-zay\u0131f seyrinden ve faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma derecesi) d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. DXY\u2019de \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 k\u00e2rs\u0131z olan) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran hak) satmak veya sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran hak) almak daha dengeli risk-getiri sunabilir. VIX (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 12 ay\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi 14,5\u2019e yak\u0131nken, 3 Ayl\u0131k SOFR (SOFR: ABD gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; k\u0131sa vadeli faiz g\u00f6stergesi) vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde opsiyonla oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\n<h3>Faiz \u0130ndirimi \u0130\u00e7in Konumlanma<\/h3>\nEkonomik takvim art\u0131k enflasyonun yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrprizlerinden \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama i\u015faretlerine odaklan\u0131yor; bu, 2025\u2019teki enflasyon endi\u015fesinin tersine bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm. Bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fi de 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek nihai GSYH verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %0,8\u2019e a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi (revize: sonradan g\u00fcncellenmesi). Bu ay a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeni istihdam say\u0131s\u0131) raporu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirse Fed\u2019in gev\u015femesi (faiz indirimine gitmesi) i\u00e7in \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d anlam\u0131na gelebilir.\n\nBu nedenle ana i\u015flem fikri daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere g\u00f6re pozisyon almak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczerine pozisyon almak, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc do\u011frudan yans\u0131tan bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Bu, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funa (hawkish: faiz art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli) kar\u015f\u0131 korunma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DXY, 99,70 zirvesi sonras\u0131 99,00\u2019a \u00e7ekilerek solukland\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi ve Fed indirimi beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 belirleyici. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\/PCE\u2019de; strateji: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve opsiyonla volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29939\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}