{"id":29938,"date":"2026-03-10T02:02:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T02:02:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/guvenli-liman-talebi-ve-fedin-daha-az-guvercin-olacagi-beklentileri-usd-jpyyi-ucuncu-seansta-da-yukselterek-15802ye-tasidi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T02:02:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T02:02:50","slug":"guvenli-liman-talebi-ve-fedin-daha-az-guvercin-olacagi-beklentileri-usd-jpyyi-ucuncu-seansta-da-yukselterek-15802ye-tasidi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/guvenli-liman-talebi-ve-fedin-daha-az-guvercin-olacagi-beklentileri-usd-jpyyi-ucuncu-seansta-da-yukselterek-15802ye-tasidi\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcvenli liman talebi ve Fed\u2019in daha az g\u00fcvercin olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri USD\/JPY\u2019yi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckselterek 158,02\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi; %0,07 art\u0131\u015fla 158,02 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 158,90\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Y\u00fckseli\u015fte ABD dolar\u0131na (USD) talep ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha az \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi etkili oldu.\n\nFiyat, 159,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131nca ivme zay\u0131flad\u0131. 159,00\u2013160,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, Japon yetkililerin piyasaya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi endi\u015feleriyle an\u0131lan b\u00f6lge. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret eden) e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n.\n\n

Key Resistance Levels<\/h3>\n\u0130lk diren\u00e7 159,00. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, paritenin 159,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131na girmesi h\u00e2linde geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131rabilir.\n\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 157,97\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkma 156,45\u2019i g\u00fcndeme getirir. Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi h\u00e2linde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) olan 156,15 hedeflenebilir; ard\u0131ndan 20 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA seviyeleri 155,49\/51 izlenir.\n\nYenin de\u011feri; Japonya ekonomisinin performans\u0131, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikas\u0131, tahvil getirisi farklar\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan (piyasan\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) etkilenir. BoJ\u2019un 2013\u20132024 d\u00f6nemindeki \u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikas\u0131 yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. 2024\u2019te politikan\u0131n kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ise yene bir miktar destek verdi ve ABD\u2013Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131.\n\nABD dolar\u0131, beklentimizden daha az faiz indirimi sinyali veren Fed etkisiyle yene kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ABD faizlerinin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. B\u00f6ylece dolar\u0131n \u201cgetiri avantaj\u0131\u201d (daha y\u00fcksek faiz\/ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi) cazip kal\u0131rken dolar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\n

Intervention Risk Outlook<\/h3>\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 161,00\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla Japon yetkililerden do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale riski \u00e7ok y\u00fckseldi. 2022\u2019deki m\u00fcdahalelerin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert fiyat hareketleri hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 da son haftalarda s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n temel nedenleri ile Japonya\u2019daki siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 gergin bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nY\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden yararlanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun alma\/satma hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) 162 civar\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, parite daha da y\u00fckselirse kazanca kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. En \u00f6nemlisi, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar; ani bir m\u00fcdahale pariteyi h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrse bu kritik olur.\n\n\u00d6te yandan m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2013Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi fark\u0131 s\u00fcrekli geni\u015f kald\u0131 ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman 400 baz puan\u0131n (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 1\/100\u2019\u00fc; 400 bp = %4) \u00fczerindeydi; bu fark dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini besledi. S\u00fcrpriz bir m\u00fcdahale k\u0131sa vadede bu fark\u0131n etkisini azaltabilir ve yenin h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nBelirsizlik nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) belirgin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu ortamda, straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem call hem put alma) gibi \u201coynakl\u0131k kazanma\u201d stratejileri dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. B\u00f6yle bir pozisyon, ister yeni zirvelere y\u00f6nelen bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ister BoJ kaynakl\u0131 sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme olsun, iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden k\u00e2r edebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar\/yen 158\u2019lerde t\u0131rman\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in daha az g\u00fcvercin kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi al\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor. 159\u2013160 band\u0131nda Japonya m\u00fcdahalesi riski artarken, RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131ma yak\u0131n. Opsiyonlarla korunmal\u0131 stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29938"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29938\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}