{"id":29935,"date":"2026-03-10T01:03:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T01:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufgden-michael-wan-petrol-kaynakli-enflasyon-ve-hurmuz-bogazinin-kapanmasina-dair-belirsizlik-filipinler-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-planlarini-golgeliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T01:03:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T01:03:51","slug":"mufgden-michael-wan-petrol-kaynakli-enflasyon-ve-hurmuz-bogazinin-kapanmasina-dair-belirsizlik-filipinler-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-planlarini-golgeliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufgden-michael-wan-petrol-kaynakli-enflasyon-ve-hurmuz-bogazinin-kapanmasina-dair-belirsizlik-filipinler-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-planlarini-golgeliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\u2019den Michael Wan: Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131na dair belirsizlik, Filipinler Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz planlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgeliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"MUFG analizi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP – Filipinler Merkez Bankas\u0131) politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini inceliyor. Ana senaryo, petrol\u00fcn 2026 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fe (2Q2026) kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 ABD dolar\u0131na gerilemesi ve aksaman\u0131n Mart 2026\u2019da bitmesi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, 2026\u2019da politika faizinde iki ek indirimle faizin %3,75\u2019e inmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.\n\nAnaliz, petrol\u00fcn uzun s\u00fcre varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90\u2013100 ABD dolar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) 2026\u2019da BSP\u2019nin %4\u2019l\u00fck \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve etkinin 2027\u2019ye uzayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren senaryolar\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 ABD dolar\u0131 senaryosunda, enflasyonun 2026\u2019da %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de %3,2\u2019ye gerilemesi bekleniyor.\n\n

Petrol \u015eoku Senaryolar\u0131 Ve Enflasyon Patikas\u0131<\/h3>\nPetrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, enflasyonun 2026\u2019da ve muhtemelen 2027\u2019de de %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Analiz bunu, enflasyonun daha kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi ve enflasyon beklentilerinin (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair tahmini) y\u00fckselmesi riskiyle ili\u015fkilendiriyor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca ge\u00e7ici arz \u015foku (arzda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bozulma) ile daha uzun s\u00fcreli bir de\u011fi\u015fim aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131m yap\u0131yor; uzun s\u00fcren durumda para politikas\u0131 tepkisi gerekebilir. Yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 temel varsay\u0131m de\u011fil, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131flarken enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artarsa risk y\u00fckseliyor.\n\nBu y\u0131l iki faiz indirimi ana senaryosu art\u0131k ciddi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Brent petrol\u00fcn bu sabah varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda inatla kalmas\u0131 ve Filipinler \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun son verisine g\u00f6re \u015eubat enflasyonunun %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, gev\u015feme i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar\u0131 h\u0131zla ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasa, beklenen Haziran ve Ekim indirimlerinin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 giderek daha az fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nBu art\u0131k uzak bir risk de\u011fil; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik kriz, umut edilen Mart son tarihe kadar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmedi. Bu s\u00fcreklilik, petrol \u015fokunun COVID d\u00f6nemindeki arz sorunlar\u0131 kadar k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentilerinin yerle\u015fmesi (kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi) ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faize a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011fl\u0131 pozisyonlarda temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.\n\n

Faiz Ve Kur \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\nT\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), bu durum Filipin faiz swaplar\u0131nda \u201csabit faiz al\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak anlam\u0131na gelir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli swaplarda sabit faiz \u00f6demek (faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yerine faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na oynayan strateji) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; BSP\u2019nin beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre faiz de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden beklemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Beklenti, faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden uzun bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemine kay\u0131yor.\n\n2022\u2019de Filipinler\u2019de enflasyonun %8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fokta g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, BSP gerekti\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme pahas\u0131na da olsa hedefini korumak i\u00e7in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 tolerans\u0131n\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Petrol\u00fcn uzun s\u00fcre 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalmas\u0131, 2026 sonuna do\u011fru faiz indirimi de\u011fil faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i hale getirebilir.\n\nKur taraf\u0131nda da Filipin pesosu i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) bir BSP, para birimine destek vererek, petrol ithalat maliyetlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz havay\u0131 k\u0131smen dengeleyebilir. Pesonun beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131na g\u00f6re konumlanmak i\u00e7in PHP al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya USD\/PHP\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha yukar\u0131da olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana odak, portf\u00f6yleri \u201cfaiz indirimi\u201d hik\u00e2yesinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmak olmal\u0131. Risk art\u0131k BSP\u2019nin politika faizini %4,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131na, hatta petrol daha da y\u00fckselirse s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) zorlanmas\u0131na do\u011fru kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Opsiyonlarla, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: risk azaltma) yapmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol 95 dolarda tutunup H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi uzarsa, BSP\u2019nin faiz indirimi senaryosu tehlikede: enflasyon %4 band\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fabilir, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d uzar. 100+ dolar, 2026\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29935\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}