{"id":29933,"date":"2026-03-10T01:02:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T01:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-gerilimi-ve-fedin-faiz-beklentileri-arasinda-altin-baski-altinda-piyasalarda-onceki-kayiplarini-konsolide-ediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T01:02:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T01:02:23","slug":"abd-iran-gerilimi-ve-fedin-faiz-beklentileri-arasinda-altin-baski-altinda-piyasalarda-onceki-kayiplarini-konsolide-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-gerilimi-ve-fedin-faiz-beklentileri-arasinda-altin-baski-altinda-piyasalarda-onceki-kayiplarini-konsolide-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve Fed\u2019in faiz beklentileri aras\u0131nda alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; piyasalarda \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 konsolide ediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde geriledi, ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.014$ seviyesindeki dipten sonra 5.109$ civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Fiyatlar yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,95 d\u00fc\u015ferken, ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki (devlet tahvillerinin faiz oran\u0131) zay\u0131flama ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki (DXY gibi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen dolar\u0131n genel g\u00fcc\u00fc) gev\u015feme, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.\n\nABD-\u0130ran gerilimi alt\u0131n\u0131 oynak (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) tutarken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda aksama riski ham petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itti. WTI 113$ civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rerek Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ard\u0131ndan G7\u2019nin, IEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) liderli\u011finde stratejik petrol stoklar\u0131ndan arz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yapabilece\u011fine dair haberlerle geri \u00e7ekildi ve daha sonra 91,40$ civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 art\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Faiz \u0130ndirimi Beklentileri De\u011fi\u015fiyor<\/h3>\nY\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini azaltt\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131ndan Fed faiz ihtimallerini hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re Haziran\u2019da Fed\u2019in 25 baz puan (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019a indi; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 idi. Temmuz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %40 civar\u0131nda.\n\nABD istihdam verileri de belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015f yarat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren ana istihdam verisi) 92 bin azald\u0131; piyasa 59 bin art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. Ocak ay\u0131nda 126 bin art\u0131\u015f vard\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019ten %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi; g\u0131da\/enerji gibi oynak kalemlerin etkisi azalt\u0131l\u0131r) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0 gelmesi bekleniyor.\n\nTeknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD (alt\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyat\u0131) 5.000$ ile 5.200$ aras\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yor. 100 periyot SMA (basit hareketli ortalama; k\u0131sa vadeli trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan ortalama fiyat) 5.118$ civar\u0131nda, 50 periyot SMA ise 5.189$ civar\u0131nda. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda 5.000$, ard\u0131ndan 4.850$ ve 4.650$ g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. 5.200$ \u00fczeri ise 5.400$-5.500$ band\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 43 civar\u0131nda, MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama; trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n 5.100$ \u00e7evresindeki yatay seyrinde tablo karma\u015f\u0131k. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebiyle (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bir taban olu\u015ftururken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. Bu denge, metalin dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; enflasyon korkusu dolar\u0131n ve tahvil getirilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine destek veriyor.\n\n<h3>Opsiyon Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\nPiyasada ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan stagflasyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) endi\u015felerine verilen tepki, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. \u015eubat 2025 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisindeki 92 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyonun \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) kalmas\u0131yla birlikte risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Ocak 2026 T\u00dcFE verisinde man\u015fet enflasyon %2,9 ile Fed hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.\n\nBu tablo, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesini (faizi indirmek, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 rahatlatmak) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu nedenle faiz indirimi beklentileri daha ileri tarihlere \u00f6teleniyor. 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde de benzer bir \u00f6rnek g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: Fed \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\/uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz mesaj\u0131 veren) duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu s\u00fcrece alt\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fleri kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakta zorland\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, merkez bankas\u0131ndan net bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi (politika pivotu) gelene kadar alt\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 5.000$-5.200$ band\u0131 en olas\u0131 i\u015flem alan\u0131. Bu durum, oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 prim toplamak) cazip k\u0131labilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin iron condor (iki ayr\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak bant i\u00e7inde kalmaya oynayan opsiyon stratejisi) ile bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 konumland\u0131r\u0131p prim (opsiyonun bedeli) toplanabilir. Ancak jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle z\u0131mni volatilite (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan pozisyonlar dikkatle y\u00f6netilmeli.\n\nYeni bir geli\u015fme ile sert hareket ihtimali oldu\u011fundan, uzun volatilite ta\u015f\u0131mak (b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynayan pozisyon) da mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u201csigorta\u201d olabilir. Straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) al\u0131m\u0131, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmada kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u015eubat T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6zellikle anlaml\u0131; veri, mevcut teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n kolayca a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nY\u00f6n i\u00e7in kritik hareketli ortalamalar izleniyor. 5.189$ civar\u0131ndaki 50 periyot SMA g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; bunun \u00fczerine net ge\u00e7i\u015f 5.400$\u2019a do\u011fru hareketi tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 5.118$ civar\u0131ndaki 100 periyot SMA alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 sarkma, 5.000$ psikolojik deste\u011finin (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nem atfetti\u011fi yuvarlak seviye) yeniden test edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: XAU\/USD 5.014$ dip sonras\u0131 5.109$\u2019a toparland\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi desteklerken petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; Fed faiz indirimi ihtimali geriledi, bant 5.000-5.200$ \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29933\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}