{"id":29929,"date":"2026-03-10T00:02:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T00:02:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-geriliminin-tirmandigi-ortamda-dow-sert-dususle-acilirken-petrol-varil-basina-100-dolarin-uzerine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T00:02:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T00:02:18","slug":"abd-iran-geriliminin-tirmandigi-ortamda-dow-sert-dususle-acilirken-petrol-varil-basina-100-dolarin-uzerine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-geriliminin-tirmandigi-ortamda-dow-sert-dususle-acilirken-petrol-varil-basina-100-dolarin-uzerine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda Dow sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD hisseleri, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. DJIA (Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi) 47.059 civar\u0131nda, 423 puan (%0,89) eksideydi; 46.812\u2019den a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve 46.593\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc.  \n\nS&#038;P 500 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 6.653 civar\u0131na inerken, Nasdaq Composite %1,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 22.146 seviyelerine geriledi. Vadeli i\u015flemler (futures: ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) gece %2\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; sonra k\u0131smen toparland\u0131, ancak cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.  \n\n<h3>Arz Kesintileriyle Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 S\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131<\/h3>  \nWTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) pazar gecesi 119 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 101,56 dolara indi; Brent (Kuzey Denizi referans petrol\u00fc) 101,81 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, Kuveyt, Bahreyn ve BAE (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri) \u00fcretim kesintisi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, deniz yoluyla ihracat\u0131 durdurdu ve depolar\u0131 doldurdu.  \n\nIrak\u2019ta \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck sahadan \u00fcretim %70 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4,3 milyon varilden 1,3 milyon varile indi. Dow vadeli i\u015flemleri 1.000 puandan fazla gerilerken, S&#038;P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; G7 bakanlar\u0131, IEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) rezervlerinden petrol sal\u0131m\u0131 konusunu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.  \n\nSeyahat hisseleri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: United -%6, Delta -%4,6, Southwest -%4,2; Carnival -%7, Royal Caribbean -%6, Norwegian -%6. Norwegian yedi seansta geriledi; Carnival ve Norwegian mart ay\u0131nda %20\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte; Royal Caribbean %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ekside; Dow Jones Ula\u015f\u0131m Endeksi\u2019nin (Transportation Average) \u00fc\u00e7 seansta %9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6neldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.  \n\nSavunma hisseleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckseldi ve S&#038;P 500\u2019de art\u0131da kalan tek sekt\u00f6r enerji oldu; Dow Inc %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi, Chevron ise DJIA\u2019da y\u00fckselen d\u00f6rt hisseden biriydi. Petrol mart ay\u0131nda %50\u2019den fazla artt\u0131; bu, Nisan 2020\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f.  \n\n<h3>Piyasa Stratejisi ve Korunma (Hedge) Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131<\/h3>  \nFed fiyatlamas\u0131 (piyasalar\u0131n faiz beklentisi) 17-18 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %97 g\u00f6steriyor; faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3. Bu oran, \u015fubat ortas\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %23\u2019ten geriledi. Petrol\u00fcn 20 dolar artmas\u0131 enflasyona 0,4 puan ekleyip GSYH\u2019yi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 0,1 puan azaltabilir; tahvil getirileri (yields: tahvilin faiz oran\u0131) y\u00fckseldi ve \u015fubat NFP (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam: ABD\u2019de ayl\u0131k yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) 92 bin azald\u0131.  \n\nBeklenen veriler: \u015fubat T\u00dcFE (CPI) ayl\u0131k %0,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,2) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) ayl\u0131k %0,2 (\u00f6nceki %0,3) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ekirdek PCE (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi t\u00fcketim enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0; 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH %1,4; Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 55,0 (\u00f6nceki 56,6) bekleniyor.  \n\nPiyasadaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u00fcksek dalgalanman\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. SPY ve QQQ gibi geni\u015f endeksleri izleyen fonlarda (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 i\u00e7in hak) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayarak kazan\u00e7 araman\u0131n do\u011frudan yoludur. \u00d6rt\u00fck dalgalanman\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; VIX (korku endeksi: S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 15 dip seviyesinden 28\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in put debit spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc, iki put ile kurulan ve net \u00f6demeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.  \n\nY\u00fcksek yak\u0131t maliyetinden en \u00e7ok zarar g\u00f6ren havayollar\u0131 ve kruvaziyer \u015firketleri gibi sekt\u00f6rler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. United Airlines (UAL) ve Carnival (CCL) gibi hisseler belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor; bu nedenle put al\u0131m\u0131 veya bear call spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle, iki al\u0131m opsiyonu kullan\u0131larak kurulan ve prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Dow Jones Ula\u015f\u0131m Endeksi\u2019ndeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f klasik bir uyar\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131ktaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha geni\u015f ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7er.  \n\nYukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in enerji ve savunma sekt\u00f6rleri, mevcut jeopolitik ortam\u0131n belirgin kazananlar\u0131. Lockheed Martin (LMT) veya Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanma hakk\u0131) kullan\u0131larak y\u00fckseli\u015fe maruz kalma sa\u011flanabilir. Cash-secured put (nakitle teminatland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f put: hisseyi belirli fiyattan almaya haz\u0131r olup prim toplama stratejisi) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da \u015fu anki y\u00fcksek primlerden (opsiyon geliri) yararlanmak i\u00e7in se\u00e7enek olabilir.  \n\nFed zor bir noktada; petrol\u00fcn enflasyon etkisi nedeniyle 18 Mart\u2019ta faiz indirimi ihtimali ortadan kalkt\u0131. Bu haftaki T\u00dcFE verisi kritik; \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip hisseler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. TLT gibi ABD tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde opsiyonlar kullan\u0131larak, s\u0131cak (beklentiden y\u00fcksek) enflasyon verisinin tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 itmesi senaryosu de\u011ferlendirilebilir.  \n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol 100 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, jeopolitik risk t\u0131rmand\u0131: ABD borsalar\u0131 sert sat\u0131\u015f yedi. Dow -423, S&#038;P -%1,3, Nasdaq -%1,1. VIX f\u0131rlad\u0131; enerji-savunma ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131, havayolu-kruvaziyer \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Fed indirimi rafa kalkt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29929","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29929"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29929\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}