{"id":29924,"date":"2026-03-09T23:01:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T23:01:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-fed-iran-gerilimi-ve-karisik-abd-istihdam-verileri-nedeniyle-netlik-bekleyerek-faize-ara-verecek\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T23:01:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T23:01:16","slug":"td-securities-fed-iran-gerilimi-ve-karisik-abd-istihdam-verileri-nedeniyle-netlik-bekleyerek-faize-ara-verecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-fed-iran-gerilimi-ve-karisik-abd-istihdam-verileri-nedeniyle-netlik-bekleyerek-faize-ara-verecek\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: Fed, \u0130ran gerilimi ve kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD istihdam verileri nedeniyle netlik bekleyerek faize ara verecek"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 belirsizlik ve ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k verileri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n vadede faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini bekliyor. Kurum, belirsizlik artarken Fed yetkililerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yapmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor.\n\n\u015eirket, enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) iyile\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ya da g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinden (tarifeler) b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok gelmezse, bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d (a\u00e7\u0131klanan ekonomik verilere g\u00f6re \u015fekillenen) kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\n<h3>Haziran\u2019dan Ba\u015flayan Fed Faiz \u0130ndirimi Patikas\u0131<\/h3>\nKurum, Haziran\u2019da ba\u015flay\u0131p Aral\u0131k\u2019ta biten, her \u00e7eyrekte 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) bir gev\u015feme patikas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu senaryoda Fed fonlama faizi (bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi i\u00e7in hedef aral\u0131k) Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %3,00\u2019e iner.\n\nTD Securities ayr\u0131ca Trump y\u00f6netiminin olas\u0131 ticaret, maliye (b\u00fct\u00e7e\/harcama ve vergiler), d\u00fczenleme ve g\u00f6\u00e7 hamlelerine dair belirsizliklere dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Finansal piyasalardaki yeni geli\u015fmeler ile jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda olas\u0131 t\u0131rmanman\u0131n, ekonomik tahminleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu s\u0131ral\u0131yor.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l, Haziran 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayacak bir dizi faiz indirimi bekliyorduk; ancak s\u00fcre\u00e7 beklenenden daha temkinli ilerledi. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki iki indirimin ard\u0131ndan Fed duraklad\u0131 ve fonlama faizini %4,75-%5,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tuttu. Bu duraklama, beklenenden daha zay\u0131f gelen verilere do\u011frudan bir yan\u0131t.\n\nFed\u2019in oda\u011f\u0131 enflasyonda; enflasyon \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (kal\u0131c\u0131 ve kolay gerilemeyen) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u015eubat 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sepetindeki mal ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; bu seviye %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Piyasa oyuncular\u0131 i\u00e7in bu durum, ilave indirimlerin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6telenebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu da uzun vadeli faiz indirimi beklentilerini daha belirsiz hale getirirken, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar\u0131n (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferini art\u0131r\u0131r.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131 Sinyalleri ve \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\n\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin ana kayna\u011f\u0131 olmaktan uzakla\u015fsa da kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller veriyor. \u015eubat raporu 190 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in acil faiz indirimi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/ g\u00f6stergeye ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) fiyatlamas\u0131, bir sonraki \u00e7eyrekte h\u0131zl\u0131 indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tmal\u0131d\u0131r.\n\nVeriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, faiz piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanman\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etme e\u011filimi) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlikten faydalanabilecek stratejiler g\u00fcndeme geliyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak sert hareketlerden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen kurgu) gibi. 2025\u2019teki \u201cp\u00fcr\u00fczs\u00fcz gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d beklentilerinin yerini daha taktiksel, veriye dayal\u0131 bir i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ald\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeopolitik risk ve kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD istihdam verileri, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131nda faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Enflasyon iyile\u015firse TD Securities Haziran\u2019dan ba\u015flay\u0131p Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar \u00fc\u00e7 indirim \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Taktiksel i\u015flemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29924"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29924\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}