{"id":29921,"date":"2026-03-09T22:02:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T22:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/volatilite-tirmanirken-stratejistler-yenin-hala-zayif-oldugunu-ve-toparlanma-icin-alan-bulundugunu-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T22:02:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T22:02:01","slug":"volatilite-tirmanirken-stratejistler-yenin-hala-zayif-oldugunu-ve-toparlanma-icin-alan-bulundugunu-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/volatilite-tirmanirken-stratejistler-yenin-hala-zayif-oldugunu-ve-toparlanma-icin-alan-bulundugunu-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131rken, stratejistler yenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu ve toparlanma i\u00e7in alan bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Japon yeni, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmesi) son s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ra\u011fmen y\u00fckselmedi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 JPY endeksi (yenin birden fazla para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama de\u011feri) h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u0131l i\u00e7i (YTD) dip seviyelere yak\u0131n. Daha \u00f6nceki oynakl\u0131k dalgalar\u0131nda yen iki kez g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti: 2024 yaz\u0131nda ve Nisan 2025\u2019te.\n\n2022\u2019de enerji fiyat \u015foku s\u0131ras\u0131nda yen, \u0130sve\u00e7 kronu ile birlikte G10\u2019un (10 b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimi) en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren para birimleri aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. Japonya, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerinde (ihra\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithal fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131) olumsuz bir \u015fok ya\u015farken BOJ faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 faizleri s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyelerden art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\n<h3>Politika Fark\u0131 ve Carry Trade Birikimi<\/h3>\nGeni\u015fleyen bu para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131, yenle finanse edilen carry trade\u2019lerin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma i\u015flemi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini destekledi. Ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yen, 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015fokundan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %23 de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Nisan 2025\u2019te zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; o d\u00f6nemde Trump \u201cKurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d tarifelerini (ithalata ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri) a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131) artmas\u0131, bu carry trade i\u015flemlerinde tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. B\u00f6yle bir \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (kalabal\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) yenin trendin tersine k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sert toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.\n\nJapon yeni, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi; ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeks y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n kal\u0131yor. Spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n net k\u0131sa JPY pozisyonu (yenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bahis) son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; son CFTC verilerine g\u00f6re (ABD Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu\u2019nun pozisyon raporu) 15 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, piyasada yen aleyhine i\u015flemlerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; korku g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fckselse bile.\n\nFX oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanma) son iki kez y\u00fckseldi\u011finde yenin sert toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck: \u00f6nce ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda, sonra 2024 yaz\u0131nda. \u00d6rne\u011fin Nisan 2025\u2019te USD\/JPY paritesi (dolar\/yen kuru) bir haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 geriledi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar carry pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in acele etti. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekten g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011finde yenin \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n<h3>Pozisyonlanma ve Korunma Fikirleri<\/h3>\nBu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, 2022 enerji \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flad\u0131: BOJ faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarken di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 faizi sert bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD ile faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 450 baz puan\u0131n (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 100 bps = 1 puan) \u00fczerinde. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faiz getiren para birimlerine y\u00f6nelmeye te\u015fvik etti. Yenle finanse edilen bu carry trade birikimi, o tarihten bu yana yenin %23 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi.\n\n\u015eu andaki ana risk, jeopolitik \u015fokun derinle\u015fmesi halinde kalabal\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde tersine d\u00f6nmesi. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u201czarar yazd\u0131rma\u201d seviyesinin (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131) d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu opsiyonlar, yende ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ters trend y\u00fckseli\u015fine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak carry trade\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dikkat: Yen, artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmiyor; BOJ endeksi dipte. Fed-BOJ faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i \u015fi\u015firdi, net k\u0131sa pozisyon 15 milyar $. Jeopolitik \u015fokta sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29921\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}