{"id":29911,"date":"2026-03-09T19:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T19:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/societe-generaleden-broux-enerji-ve-hollanda-gazindaki-yukselis-euroyu-baskiliyor-buyume-endiseleriyle-eur-usd-baski-altinda-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T19:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T19:04:23","slug":"societe-generaleden-broux-enerji-ve-hollanda-gazindaki-yukselis-euroyu-baskiliyor-buyume-endiseleriyle-eur-usd-baski-altinda-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generaleden-broux-enerji-ve-hollanda-gazindaki-yukselis-euroyu-baskiliyor-buyume-endiseleriyle-eur-usd-baski-altinda-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale\u2019den Broux: Enerji ve Hollanda gaz\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f euroyu bask\u0131l\u0131yor; b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleriyle EUR\/USD bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve Hollanda gaz\u0131ndaki (Dutch TTF) y\u00fckseli\u015f Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor; bu durum EUR\/USD paritesini (Euro\/Dolar) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutuyor. Do\u011fal gaz, piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda %30 y\u00fckseldi; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimin (yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem y\u00f6n\u00fcn) enerji hareketlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nFaiz farklar\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) EUR\/USD i\u00e7in ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Odak noktas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleri.\n\n<h3>Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131 Euro\u2019daki Bask\u0131y\u0131 Art\u0131r\u0131yor<\/h3>\nPiyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Haziran\u2019da ilk ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (piyasan\u0131n fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihtimal) %84.\n\nECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel, bir enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert art\u0131\u015f) enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131) hedeften uzakla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirme vermedi ve petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fe dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\nSon d\u00f6nemde enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, EUR\/USD paritesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim (bearish bias: a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti) olu\u015fturuyor. Hollanda TTF do\u011fal gaz vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (belirli bir tarihte \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) son bir ayda %25\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselerek megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 55 euroya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 pariteyi 1,06 seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekti.\n\n<h3>Daha Fazla D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe Y\u00f6nelik Opsiyon Stratejisi<\/h3>\nDikkat faiz farklar\u0131nda olmamal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa, Temmuz\u2019a kadar bir ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten %75 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. As\u0131l belirleyici unsur, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin ekonomik faaliyeti zay\u0131flatma riski ve bunun Euro\u2019yu daha az cazip hale getirmesi. Bu, mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki verilerin Euro B\u00f6lgesi man\u015fet enflasyonunun (genel enflasyon; t\u00fcm ana kalemleri i\u00e7eren) %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesine ra\u011fmen ya\u015fan\u0131yor.\n\nAyn\u0131 tablo 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: ilk enerji \u015foku Euro\u2019yu dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pariteye (1\u2019e) do\u011fru sert bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde resesyon (ekonomik daralma) endi\u015fesi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha sonra ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, enerji krizlerinde d\u00f6viz i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131ndan (faiz kararlar\u0131 gibi) \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (sat\u0131m hakk\u0131; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Strateji olarak 1,05\u2019in alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) ve vadesi nisan sonu veya may\u0131s olan put al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. B\u00f6ylece Euro enerji maliyetlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, riskin ba\u015ftan belli oldu\u011fu (defined-risk: en fazla \u00f6denen prim kadar kay\u0131p) bir y\u00f6ntemle kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir.\n\nMevcut piyasa dinami\u011fi f\u0131rsat sunuyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Euro opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckseldi, ancak sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini tam yans\u0131tmayabilir. Piyasan\u0131n ECB faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131 bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor ve bu ayr\u0131\u015fma de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riskin \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f bir Euro y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, Dutch TTF gaz %30 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131: Euro bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, EUR\/USD 1,06\u2019ya \u00e7ekiliyor. Faiz fark\u0131 de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski belirleyici. 1,05 alt\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29911\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}