{"id":29900,"date":"2026-03-09T18:02:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T18:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/uc-yillik-%13-000lik-yukselisin-ardindan-carvana-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesiyle-karsi-karsiya-%50ye-varan-dusus-ihtimali-gundemde\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T18:02:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T18:02:16","slug":"uc-yillik-%13-000lik-yukselisin-ardindan-carvana-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesiyle-karsi-karsiya-%50ye-varan-dusus-ihtimali-gundemde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/uc-yillik-%13-000lik-yukselisin-ardindan-carvana-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesiyle-karsi-karsiya-%50ye-varan-dusus-ihtimali-gundemde\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k %13.000\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Carvana, Elliott Dalga d\u00fczeltmesiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; %50\u2019ye varan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimali g\u00fcndemde"},"content":{"rendered":"Carvana Co (NYSE: CVNA), \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda %13.000\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldikten sonra 2022\u2019de %98 gerileme ya\u015fad\u0131; ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak yeni t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131. ((II)) dalga dibinden 3,62 dolardan ba\u015flayan hareket, be\u015f dalgal\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; (I) dalgas\u0131 486 dolarda tamamlanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nAnalize g\u00f6re hisse, (I) dalgas\u0131ndaki toplam y\u00fckseli\u015fin d\u00fczeltme (yani y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme) a\u015famas\u0131na girdi. Geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in 245\u2013188 dolar hedef b\u00f6lgesi veriliyor; bu aral\u0131k, Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme (fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015fin belirli bir y\u00fczdesini geri vermesi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) seviyelerine g\u00f6re %50\u2013%61,8 band\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.\n\nD\u00fczeltmenin, g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafi\u011fin yap\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 3, 7 veya 11 sal\u0131n\u0131ml\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131-a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerle olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ad\u0131m say\u0131s\u0131) bir model olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. 245\u2013188 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek bir dip (\u00f6nceki dipten daha yukar\u0131da olu\u015fan dip) olu\u015ftuktan sonra bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f (III) dalgas\u0131 olarak etiketleniyor.\n\n\u00d6nerilen yakla\u015f\u0131m, pozisyon a\u00e7madan \u00f6nce 3, 7 veya 11 sal\u0131n\u0131ml\u0131 dizilimin tamamlanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek. Ayr\u0131ca giri\u015f zamanlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201cextreme Blue Box\u201d sistemine at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor (belirli bir fiyat b\u00f6lgesini \u201colas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f alan\u0131\u201d olarak i\u015faretleyen, al\u0131m-sat\u0131m zamanlamas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan bir y\u00f6ntem).\n\nB\u00fcy\u00fck rallinin ard\u0131ndan Carvana\u2019n\u0131n belirgin bir d\u00fczeltme s\u00fcrecine girmesi bekleniyor. Bu geri \u00e7ekilmenin sert olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (hisse yerine s\u00f6zle\u015fme \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yap\u0131lan ara\u00e7lar) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, put opsiyonu (hisse d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak veya bear call spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla call opsiyonu sat\u0131p-alma kombinasyonu; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\/yatay senaryoda prim geliri hedefler) kurmak \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendiriliyor; hedef 245\u2013188 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eden son makro verilerle desteklendi\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan Fed tutanaklar\u0131, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti; bu da otomobil kredilerinin eri\u015filebilirli\u011fini (kredi maliyetlerini) do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (ikinci el ara\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrini izleyen endeks) zay\u0131flad\u0131; son \u00e7eyrekte %3,5 gerileyerek Carvana\u2019n\u0131n ana pazar\u0131nda talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n2025 sonuna d\u00f6n\u00fck de\u011ferlendirmede, 90+ g\u00fcn gecikmi\u015f oto kredi oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131; New York Fed verilerine g\u00f6re %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 2012\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filimin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcketici kredisine dayal\u0131 \u015firketler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler, beklenen geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor.\n\n%50\u2019ye varabilecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle CVNA opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cimplied volatility\u201dnin (piyasadaki opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) belirgin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durum put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirirken, call spread satarak elde edilen primi art\u0131rabilir. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131, hem fiyat y\u00f6n\u00fcnden hem de zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (opsiyon vadesi yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011fer kayb\u0131) faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CVNA\u2019da rekor rallinin ard\u0131ndan alarm: Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re (I) dalgas\u0131 tamam, %50\u2013%61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmeyle 245\u2013188 dolar hedefte. Sert geri \u00e7ekilme; put\/bear call spread f\u0131rsat\u0131, makro bask\u0131 destekli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29900\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}