{"id":29889,"date":"2026-03-09T14:00:57","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T14:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/uob-arastirmacilari-subat-ayinda-abd-is-gucu-piyasasinin-zayifladigini-bildiriyor-tarim-disi-istihdam-92-bin-azaldi-is-gucune-katilim-belirgin-sekilde-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T14:00:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T14:00:57","slug":"uob-arastirmacilari-subat-ayinda-abd-is-gucu-piyasasinin-zayifladigini-bildiriyor-tarim-disi-istihdam-92-bin-azaldi-is-gucune-katilim-belirgin-sekilde-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/uob-arastirmacilari-subat-ayinda-abd-is-gucu-piyasasinin-zayifladigini-bildiriyor-tarim-disi-istihdam-92-bin-azaldi-is-gucune-katilim-belirgin-sekilde-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"UOB ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ABD i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor: Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 92 bin azald\u0131, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131) \u015eubat\u2019ta 92 bin azald\u0131. Bu, Ekim 2025\u2019ten (140 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) bu yana en sert gerileme oldu. Bloomberg medyan tahmini 55 bin art\u0131\u015ft\u0131; en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin ise +10 bindi.\n\n\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019ta %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ocak\u2019ta %4,3, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %4,4 seviyesindeydi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m<\/h3>\n\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan veya i\u015f arayanlar\u0131n toplam n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131) \u015eubat\u2019ta 0,1 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %62,0 oldu. Ocak ay\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %62,5\u2019ten %62,1\u2019e a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi. Pandemi \u00f6ncesi en y\u00fcksek seviye %63,3\u2019t\u00fc.\n\n\u0130\u015f kay\u0131plar\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlere yay\u0131ld\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 86 bin azal\u0131rken, kamuda 6 bin ki\u015fi azald\u0131.\n\n\u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %0,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bloomberg tahminleri ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 idi. Ocak\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.\n\n\u015eubat\u2019ta istihdam\u0131n 92 bin azalmas\u0131, Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131p olarak piyasalarda belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131kta\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) sert art\u0131\u015f yaratabilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX: S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in korku endeksi) 14 civar\u0131ndaki son ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Portf\u00f6yleri dalgalanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya VIX vadeli i\u015flem (futures: ileri tarihli fiyat \u00fczerinden i\u015flem) gibi ara\u00e7lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n\n<h3>Hisse Endekslerinde A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6n Riski<\/h3>\n\u0130\u015f kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f tabana yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. S&#038;P 500 (SPY: S&#038;P 500\u2019\u00fc izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) veya Nasdaq 100 (QQQ: Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fc izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi kullan\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) piyasa gerilemesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmada kullan\u0131labilir. Tarihsel olarak, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n iki ay \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015fmesi (Mart\u2019ta da s\u00fcrerse) \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ekonomik yava\u015flamadan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\n\n\u0130stihdam d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00fccretlerin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) i\u00e7in zor bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor. Zay\u0131f istihdam normalde faiz indirimi beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131r; ancak \u00fccret kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 (\u00fccretler artt\u0131k\u00e7a fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) karar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerini izlemeli. SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate: ABD\u2019de gecelik, teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizi) piyasada politika faizi beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kullan\u0131lan \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergedir. Piyasa \u015fu anda Temmuz Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, bir hafta \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.\n\nZay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019i daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir \u00e7izgiye itmesi, ABD dolar\u0131nda bask\u0131 yaratabilir. 2024\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama d\u00f6neminde de daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 beklentileri dolar\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in FXE gibi (Euro\u2019yu izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) d\u00f6viz ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam \u015eubat\u2019ta 92 bin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; s\u00fcrpriz kay\u0131p i\u015fsizli\u011fi %4,4\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u00dccretler %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: Fed ikilemi, VIX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama ve endekslerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29889\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}