{"id":29885,"date":"2026-03-09T13:57:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T13:57:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/deutsche-bank-subat-ayi-abd-manset-tufenin-enerji-kaynakli-guclenmesini-cekirdek-tufenin-ise-yillik-bazda-24-civarina-gerilemesini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T13:57:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T13:57:59","slug":"deutsche-bank-subat-ayi-abd-manset-tufenin-enerji-kaynakli-guclenmesini-cekirdek-tufenin-ise-yillik-bazda-24-civarina-gerilemesini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/deutsche-bank-subat-ayi-abd-manset-tufenin-enerji-kaynakli-guclenmesini-cekirdek-tufenin-ise-yillik-bazda-24-civarina-gerilemesini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank, \u015eubat ay\u0131 ABD man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin enerji kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,4 civar\u0131na gerilemesini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank ekonomistleri, \u015eubat ay\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesini bekliyor. Bunun ana nedeni enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f. Banka, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,27, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,24 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nY\u0131ll\u0131k bazda man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,4 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun ise %2,50\u2019den %2,46\u2019ya hafif gerileyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.\n\n<h3>Bu Haftan\u0131n \u00d6nemli Veri A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131<\/h3>\nT\u00dcFE \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00e7ekirdek PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; iki kritik veri ayn\u0131 haftaya denk geliyor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ki\u015fisel gelir ve harcama raporu, Ocak ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisini de i\u00e7erecek.\n\n\u00d6nceki T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE (PPI: \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi; \u00fcretici maliyetlerini g\u00f6sterir) verilerine dayanarak \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun ayl\u0131k %0,42 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki %0,36). Bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek PCE oran\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,1 puan y\u00fckselterek %3,1\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\nBu nedenle piyasa, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin beklentilerini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlad\u0131. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (Fed funds futures: piyasan\u0131n politika faizine dair beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) ima etti\u011fi \u00fczere Haziran\u2019dan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %35\u2019in alt\u0131na geriledi. Hakim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, olas\u0131 bir gev\u015femenin en erken \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe sarkaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ortam; faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na ve artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Buna, SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (SOFR futures: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizine dayal\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz kontratlar\u0131) \u00fczerine opsiyon alarak (option: belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) faizlerin beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: risk azaltma) gibi stratejiler dahil edilebilir. Ayr\u0131ca VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (VIX call: \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan opsiyon) kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve FOMC toplant\u0131lar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurulun toplant\u0131lar\u0131) \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed\u2019i yak\u0131ndan izleyenler dikkat: Deutsche Bank, \u015eubat ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de enerji etkisiyle man\u015fetin \u00e7ekirdekten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE %0,42; Haziran indirimi ihtimali %35 alt\u0131. Piyasa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29885\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}