{"id":29881,"date":"2026-03-09T11:58:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T11:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-gerilimin-tirmanmasiyla-eur-usd-11540-civarinda-yatay-seyrederken-riskten-kacis-daha-riskli-varliklara-talebi-sinirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T11:58:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T11:58:00","slug":"orta-dogudaki-gerilimin-tirmanmasiyla-eur-usd-11540-civarinda-yatay-seyrederken-riskten-kacis-daha-riskli-varliklara-talebi-sinirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-gerilimin-tirmanmasiyla-eur-usd-11540-civarinda-yatay-seyrederken-riskten-kacis-daha-riskli-varliklara-talebi-sinirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla EUR\/USD 1,1540 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f daha riskli varl\u0131klara talebi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, Asya\u2019daki \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi 1,1540\u20131,1550 band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dahil oldu\u011fu Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131f kald\u0131 ve parite bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\nAvrupa i\u015flemlerinde S&#038;P 500 vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle (belirsizlikte daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) %0,6 y\u00fckselerek 99,50 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n\n<h3>Market Risk Sentiment<\/h3>\nEuro, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilimle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle de bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hafta sonu ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in baz\u0131 \u0130ran petrol depolar\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 artt\u0131.\n\nK\u00fcresel benzin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentilerinin (halk\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fine dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatabilir.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu \u015eubat\u2019ta zaten beklentiden h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc man\u015fet HICP (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; AB\u2019de kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,9 olurken, \u00e7ekirdek HICP (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4 oldu.\n\nABD\u2019de g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u015eubat T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisine \u00e7evrildi. Veri, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri etkileyebilir.\n\n<h3>Positioning And Volatility<\/h3>\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesi piyasalarda sert dalga yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, DXY\u2019yi 99,50\u2019ye iterken EUR\/USD 1,1550 seviyesine gerilemi\u015fti. Bu d\u00f6nem, jeopolitik riskin (sava\u015f\/gerilim kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik) piyasada ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 belirleyici olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.\n\nEuro, 2025\u2019teki bu \u015foktan sonra zorland\u0131; parite bu sabah itibar\u0131yla 1,0700 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve Avrupa\u2019da daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme son 12 ayda para birimini bask\u0131lad\u0131. Bu nedenle Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 104,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye ilk \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 d\u00f6neminin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde.\n\nBa\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz paritelerinde, \u00f6zellikle EUR\/USD\u2019de ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek. 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k ge\u00e7en hafta %9,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce 2024 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %6 ortalamaya g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015f. Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun straddle veya strangle gibi stratejilerle (opsiyonlarda ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kombinasyonlar\u0131; y\u00f6n de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler) oynakl\u0131k \u201csat\u0131n almay\u0131\u201d de\u011ferlendirebilir; yani fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layabilir.\n\n2025\u2019te depo sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (Brent petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) daha y\u00fcksek bir banda ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; fiyat varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda. Ani arz \u015foku hafiflemi\u015f olsa da risk primi (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen pay) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 yeni arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131, petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n\n\u015eubat 2025\u2019teki enerji \u015fokunun Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek HICP\u2019yi %2,4\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu enflasyon etkisi kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu ve ge\u00e7en ayki okuma %2,8 geldi. Piyasa art\u0131k bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenen agresif faiz indirimlerini Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) taraf\u0131nda daha az olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) sabit faiz \u00f6demek, ECB\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya\/indirimde acele etmemeye yatk\u0131n) bir patikaya kaymas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir pozisyon olabilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da sava\u015f \u015fiddetlenirken EUR\/USD 1,1550\u2019ye yak\u0131n bask\u0131da: risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131f, DXY 99,50\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131. Petrol \u015foku Euro\u2019yu s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckselirken g\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29881"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29881\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}