{"id":29820,"date":"2026-03-07T03:57:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T03:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/uobden-jester-koh-orta-dogu-catismasindaki-sok-kisa-surerse-singapurun-gsyhsi-sinirli-etkilenecek\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T03:57:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T03:57:47","slug":"uobden-jester-koh-orta-dogu-catismasindaki-sok-kisa-surerse-singapurun-gsyhsi-sinirli-etkilenecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/uobden-jester-koh-orta-dogu-catismasindaki-sok-kisa-surerse-singapurun-gsyhsi-sinirli-etkilenecek\/","title":{"rendered":"UOB\u2019den Jester Koh: Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki \u015fok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrerse Singapur\u2019un GSYH\u2019si s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkilenecek"},"content":{"rendered":"UOB Global Economics &#038; Markets Research, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n **k\u0131sa s\u00fcrmesi** halinde Singapur\u2019un GSYH\u2019si (ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) \u00fczerindeki etkinin **s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131** kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kurum, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n **en fazla d\u00f6rt hafta** yo\u011fun seyretti\u011fini ve petrol\u00fcn **varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda** kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan da kademeli olarak normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc varsayd\u0131.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019nun ba\u015fl\u0131ca ekonomilerine yap\u0131lan ihracat, Singapur\u2019un toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k **%2\u2019si**. UOB, 2026 i\u00e7in **%3,6** GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini korurken; k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketim (hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131) ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 \u00fczerinden **dolayl\u0131 etkiler** (zincirleme etkiler) olabilece\u011fini not etti.\n\n<h3>D\u0131\u015f Talep ve Tedarik Zinciri Riskleri<\/h3>\nUOB, g\u00fcvenin bozulmas\u0131 ve tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 (\u00fcretim ve lojistik ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kopmalar) nedeniyle **d\u0131\u015f talebin** zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fini, bunun da ihracat\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Singapur\u2019un d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131; \u00fclke i\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen katma de\u011ferin (\u00fclke i\u00e7inde yarat\u0131lan gelir) \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn **yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 talebe** ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\nUOB, daha y\u00fcksek elektrik\/do\u011falgaz gibi kamu hizmeti (utility), ula\u015f\u0131m ve girdi maliyetlerinin mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek enflasyonu art\u0131rabilece\u011fini belirtti. 2005\u20132025 verilerine dayanarak, Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel referans petrol fiyat\u0131) **varil ba\u015f\u0131na 10 ABD dolar\u0131** y\u00fckselmesinin **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu** (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) yakla\u015f\u0131k **30\u201340 baz puan** art\u0131rabilece\u011fini hesaplad\u0131. (Baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 40 baz puan = 0,40 y\u00fczde puan.)\n\nBu durumun, MAS\u2019\u0131n (Singapur Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u015flevini g\u00f6ren Singapur Para Otoritesi) Nisan 2026 MPS toplant\u0131s\u0131nda (para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131) politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. UOB\u2019nin temel senaryosu, S$NEER politika band\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fiminin (Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flem ortaklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 seyrini y\u00f6neten kur band\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7lenme h\u0131z\u0131) **y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,0** seviyesine, yani **50 baz puan** art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131; ancak karar\u0131n Temmuz 2026 MPS\u2019ye ertelenme ihtimali de bulunuyor.\n\nUOB, k\u0131sa vadede makro etkinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok **enflasyonda** g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini belirtti. Haberde, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi not edildi.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Stratejisi ve Politika Beklentileri<\/h3>\nMevcut Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik ana etkisinin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok **enflasyon** taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Singapur ekonomisine do\u011frudan etkinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, risk daha \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 gibi **ikincil etkilerden** geliyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede odak, artan maliyetlerin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirece\u011fi olmal\u0131.\n\nBuradaki ana kanal, petrol fiyat\u0131. Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslimli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na **95 ABD dolar\u0131** civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; son bir ayda **%15\u2019ten fazla** y\u00fckseldi ve kritik **100 ABD dolar\u0131** e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. 2005\u20132025 verileriyle kurulan modellere g\u00f6re, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 seviyesine k\u0131yasla bu t\u00fcr kal\u0131c\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f, Singapur\u2019un \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunu belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 itebilir.\n\nBu tablo, MAS\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Faiz piyasalar\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz ve politika beklentilerinin fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) art\u0131k MAS\u2019\u0131n S$NEER politika band\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fimini art\u0131rarak politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 **%75\u2019in \u00fczerinde** fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, \u015eubat 2026\u2019da politikan\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine k\u0131yasla net bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi.\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, **Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi** y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler) i\u00e7inde, SGD\u2019nin \u00f6zellikle daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faizi art\u0131rmaya isteksiz) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip \u00fclkelerin para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesinden faydalanan se\u00e7enekler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca forward i\u015flemler (gelecek tarihli kur sabitleme s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) ile MAS karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken daha avantajl\u0131 bir kurun bug\u00fcnden kilitlenmesi de de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nY\u00fcksek enflasyon ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika, hisseler i\u00e7in olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131r; bu da Straits Times Index (STI) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabilir. Maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleriyle olu\u015fabilecek olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131, STI \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131yla korunma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getirebilir.\n\nGe\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131yla enerji fiyat \u015fokunda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. MAS, enflasyon beklentilerini sabitlemek i\u00e7in takvim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bir miktar yava\u015flatsa bile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi \u00f6nceliklendirebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrerse Singapur\u2019a darbe s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; as\u0131l risk petrol ve enflasyon. Brent 100$\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken MAS\u2019\u0131n Nisan\/Temmuz 2026\u2019da S$NEER\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 %75+ fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29820\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}