{"id":29812,"date":"2026-03-07T02:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T02:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-bob-savage-korunma-pozisyonlari-cozulurken-ve-yurtdisi-cikis-kaynakli-sermaye-cikislari-surerken-cny-vadeli-islemleri-ile-spot-kur-ayrisiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T02:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T02:00:18","slug":"bnyden-bob-savage-korunma-pozisyonlari-cozulurken-ve-yurtdisi-cikis-kaynakli-sermaye-cikislari-surerken-cny-vadeli-islemleri-ile-spot-kur-ayrisiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-bob-savage-korunma-pozisyonlari-cozulurken-ve-yurtdisi-cikis-kaynakli-sermaye-cikislari-surerken-cny-vadeli-islemleri-ile-spot-kur-ayrisiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Bob Savage: Korunma pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrken ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, CNY vadeli i\u015flemleri ile spot kur ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019nin Piyasalar Makro Strateji Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bob Savage, CNY (\u00c7in yuan\u0131) vadeli i\u015flemleri ile spot kur (anl\u0131k kur) aras\u0131nda belirgin bir fark oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Bu tablo, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na (hedge \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi: riskten korunmak i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131lan i\u015flemlerin geri al\u0131nmas\u0131) ve varl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Yuan, benzer para birimlerinden daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi; ancak spot piyasadaki ak\u0131\u015f verileri, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na varl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131yla (asset expatriation: varl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nAk\u0131\u015f verileri, son iki g\u00fcnde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu; bunun, son geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan varl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 veya do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ge\u00e7en son \u00fc\u00e7 seansta CNY vadeli ve swap (swap: iki taraf\u0131n belirli vadelerde nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131\/kur riskini takas etti\u011fi t\u00fcrev i\u015flem) i\u015flemlerindeki hareket, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fcretti ve \u00f6nceki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Kur \u0130stikrar\u0131na Politika Ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>  \nPBoC (\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Pan Gongsheng, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticarette rekabet avantaj\u0131 i\u00e7in para birimini bilerek zay\u0131flatmaya (deval\u00fcasyon: kurun bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi) ihtiya\u00e7 duymad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00f6yle bir plan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Renminbi\u2019nin (RMB: yuan\u0131n resmi ad\u0131) genel olarak istikrarl\u0131 tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131nda bir ara\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.\n\n\u00c7in yuan\u0131nda vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler ile spot fiyat aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; spot kur, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. \u015eubat 2026 verilerinde \u00c7in Caixin \u0130malat PMI\u2019nin 49,5\u2019e gerilemesi bu endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. (PMI: Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 imalatta daralmaya i\u015faret eder.) Bu, piyasa ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nSpot piyasadaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, do\u011frudan varl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor; y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131 son hafta i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00c7in\u2019in SAFE (Devlet D\u00f6viz \u0130daresi) verileri de bunu destekliyor: 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde net portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131: hisse\/tahvil gibi finansal varl\u0131klara yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin azalmas\u0131 ya da \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nmesi) 32 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu kadar bask\u0131 varken para biriminin \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (krizde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olma g\u00fcc\u00fc sorgulan\u0131yor.\n\nBuna ra\u011fmen vadeli ve swap ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yuana i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun nedeni, piyasan\u0131n otoritelerin istikrar i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale edece\u011fine inanmas\u0131 olabilir. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmesini (verbal commitment: piyasaya verilen \u201cistikrar\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131z\u201d mesaj\u0131) eylemle destekliyor; son bir ayda g\u00fcnl\u00fck USD\/CNY merkezi pariteyi (reference rate: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ilan etti\u011fi g\u00fcnl\u00fck baz kur) piyasa beklentisinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerde belirledi. Bu resmi duru\u015f, daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyen ana unsur.\n\n<h3>Oynakl\u0131k Stratejileri \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>  \nBu tablo, 2025 boyunca s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131ma benziyor: otoriteler de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 duruyor, ancak tamamen durdurmuyor. Daha geriye gidildi\u011finde, 2015 ve 2023\u2019teki kontroll\u00fc de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri (managed devaluation: kurun belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve kontroll\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131) istikrar hedeflense bile ekonomik stres d\u00f6nemlerinde kademeli zay\u0131flamaya izin verilebildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Mevcut \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar, bu uzun s\u00fcredir uygulanan politikay\u0131 zorluyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri kur\/faiz gibi bir g\u00f6stergeye ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu gerilim, y\u00f6n tahminindense oynakl\u0131kta (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanma seviyesi) f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Opsiyon almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/CNH call spread (call spread: belirli iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiri hedefleyen opsiyon kombinasyonu; USD\/CNH: offshore yuan kuru) gibi yap\u0131lar, PBoC\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde sert harekete kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir. Oynakl\u0131k maliyeti (opsiyon primi: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; piyasa istikrar\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor, ancak mevcut sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bu istikrar\u0131 zorluyor.\n\nPrim toplamak i\u00e7in USD\/CNH vadeli satmak cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de (forward: ileri vadeli kur s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi), spot zay\u0131fl\u0131k aniden h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa risk tek tarafl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir (asimetrik risk: olumsuz senaryoda kayb\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131). \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, risk aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net tan\u0131mlayan opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 kullanmak olur; \u00f6rne\u011fin collar (collar: hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in birlikte kullan\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131). Bu, resmi politikan\u0131n piyasa ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi dalgal\u0131 ortamda hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011flar.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yuan\u2019da spot-vadeli ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: hedge \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve sert sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 spotu bask\u0131l\u0131yor. PBoC kur istikrar\u0131 mesaj\u0131 verirken t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yuan fiyatl\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primli opsiyonlarla volatilite f\u0131rsat\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29812\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}