{"id":29807,"date":"2026-03-07T01:57:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T01:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/tirmanan-ortadogu-savasi-petrolu-yukseltirken-zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-dolari-sarsti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T01:57:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T01:57:18","slug":"tirmanan-ortadogu-savasi-petrolu-yukseltirken-zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-dolari-sarsti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/tirmanan-ortadogu-savasi-petrolu-yukseltirken-zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-dolari-sarsti\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u0131rmanan Ortado\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 petrol\u00fc y\u00fckseltirken, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri dolar\u0131 sarst\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Dini Lideri\u2019nin 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7evresindeki ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 geldi. \u0130ran g\u00fc\u00e7leri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik petrol ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131ndan biri) kapatt\u0131; bu durum Asya\u2019n\u0131n ana petrol tedarik hatt\u0131n\u0131 aksatt\u0131.\n\nABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n bir sepet para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) hafta i\u00e7inde 99,70\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 99,00\u2019a geriledi. ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) \u015fubatta 92 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; piyasa 59 bin art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. Ocak verisi 130 binden 126 bine revize edildi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019ten %4,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n\n

Enerji Fiyat \u015eoku ve D\u00f6viz Kurlar\u0131nda Yeniden Fiyatlama<\/h3>\nEUR\/USD 1,1600 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Avrupa depolar\u0131 k\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi dolu olsa da euro petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmadan etkilendi. GBP\/USD 1,3400 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; piyasalar martta BoE\u2019nin (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u201330 band\u0131nda fiyatlad\u0131 (baz puan: faizde y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim). Bu oran, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 seviyesinden geriledi.\n\nUSD\/JPY 157,70 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla AUD\/USD 0,7030\u2019a yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,20 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Alt\u0131n 5.147 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 5.200 dolar\u0131 test etti.\n\nPlanl\u0131 g\u00fcndemde 9\u201312 Mart\u2019ta ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131), Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve BoE yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ile \u00c7in T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici\/\u00fcretici enflasyonu), ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u0130ngiltere GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verileri yer al\u0131yor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.\n\nOdak noktas\u0131 petrolde: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Fiyatlar 90 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; ancak 1973 petrol krizi gibi jeopolitik \u015foklar, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ve enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) ve talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almas\u0131 gerekir.\n\nABD dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda tablo karma\u015f\u0131k: \u0130lk a\u015famada \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131yla destek buldu. Ancak 92 bin ki\u015filik istihdam kayb\u0131, ekonomide sert yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor ve Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabilir. G\u00fcvenli liman talebi ile zay\u0131flayan ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, DXY \u00fczerinde her iki y\u00f6ne sert hareket ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hedefleyen stratejilere y\u00f6nelebilir: straddle (ayn\u0131 fiyat ve vadede al\u0131m + sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m + sat\u0131m opsiyonu).\n\n

Alt\u0131n, Dolar ve Faiz Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n 5.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fi, jeopolitik ve ekonomik kayg\u0131larla \u201csomut varl\u0131klara\u201d (hard assets: alt\u0131n gibi fiziksel de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131) y\u00f6nelimin net g\u00f6stergesi. Bu hareket, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerde dolara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltma (de-dollarization: rezervleri dolardan \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme) amac\u0131yla son y\u0131llarda rekor alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131yla destekleniyor. 1970\u2019lerin stagflasyon d\u00f6nemindeki (stagflasyon: y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) alt\u0131n performans\u0131, mevcut ortam i\u00e7in tarihsel kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sunuyor.\n\nD\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda bu krizin merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fma yaratmas\u0131na dikkat edilmeli. Piyasa BoE faiz indirimini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geri fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da sterlini destekliyor. Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam\u0131 ise Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, GBP\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu gibi stratejileri (sterlinin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\nJapon yeni, geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fcnden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya enerji ithalat\u0131na \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve petrol \u015foku do\u011frudan ekonomiyi vuruyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) alarmda olsa da bu ortamda yenin belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklenmiyor. Bu nedenle JPY al\u0131mlar\u0131nda temkinli olunmal\u0131; USD\/JPY call spread (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu al-sat kombinasyonu) gibi, olas\u0131 yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n\nAvustralya dolar\u0131, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015ften destek buluyor; Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 bunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, emtia g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc enerji ithalat\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 konumlayan \u00e7apraz kurlara (cross: dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 iki para birimi) f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin AUD\/EUR al\u0131m opsiyonu, Avrupa ekonomisinin enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na hassasiyeti nedeniyle bu temay\u0131 yans\u0131tabilir.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftan\u0131n en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon verileri, \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE. Enflasyon y\u00fcksek gelirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme bariz zay\u0131fl\u0131yorsa, stagflasyon ortam\u0131 teyit olur ve piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde artar. Bu veriler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyece\u011fi i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kapan\u0131nca petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019si devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131: varil 90 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, alt\u0131n 5.200\u2019\u00fc test etti. Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam\u0131 DXY\u2019yi dalgaland\u0131r\u0131rken, se\u00e7enek stratejileri ve enflasyon verileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29807\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}