{"id":29798,"date":"2026-03-06T22:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T22:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abn-amro-ay-yeni-yil-harcamalarinin-etkisiyle-cinin-subat-tufesinin-yillik-bazda-1e-yakin-artacagini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T22:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T22:04:23","slug":"abn-amro-ay-yeni-yil-harcamalarinin-etkisiyle-cinin-subat-tufesinin-yillik-bazda-1e-yakin-artacagini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abn-amro-ay-yeni-yil-harcamalarinin-etkisiyle-cinin-subat-tufesinin-yillik-bazda-1e-yakin-artacagini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO, Ay Yeni Y\u0131l harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle \u00c7in\u2019in \u015eubat T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1\u2019e yak\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO, \u00c7in\u2019in T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel seviyesini g\u00f6sterir) enflasyonunun \u015eubat ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fim) yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor. Bu beklenti, Ocak\u2019taki %0,2 seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan geliyor; art\u0131\u015fta Ay Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ve baz etkisi (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\/y\u00fcksek seviyenin bu y\u0131lki oran\u0131 oldu\u011fundan farkl\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi) etkili.\n\nBanka, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda \u00dcFE\u2019deki (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi; \u00fcreticinin fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim) y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunda emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki (sanayide kullan\u0131lan ham maddeler) y\u00fckseli\u015fin pay\u0131 var.\n\n<h3>\u00c7in Enflasyonu ve Ticaret Beklentileri<\/h3>\nABN AMRO ayr\u0131ca Ocak\u2013\u015eubat toplam ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin Aral\u0131k\u2019a k\u0131yasla h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131, ithalat\u0131n da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, teknoloji ve yapay zek\u00e2 sekt\u00f6rlerinin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi k\u00fcresel i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcndeki (d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme-daralma e\u011filimi) toparlanmaya dayan\u0131yor.\n\n\u00c7in\u2019den daha sa\u011flam bir ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fc sinyali g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bunu enflasyonda toparlanma beklentisi ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri destekliyor. Bu tablo, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyen) pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar, FTSE China A50 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7in hisse endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; ama\u00e7, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmak.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerle de destekleniyor: \u015eubat 2026 Caixin \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) 51,2 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi ve geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti. Benzer bir durum 2024 sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; PMI\u2019\u0131n 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, sanayi metalleri rallisini (h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi) \u00f6ncelemi\u015fti. Bu nedenle bak\u0131r gibi emtialarda uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures; ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) pozisyonu almak, beklenen sanayi talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011frudan bir strateji olabilir. Bak\u0131r fiyat\u0131 yak\u0131n zamanda ton ba\u015f\u0131na 9.000 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.\n\nAncak 2025 boyunca piyasan\u0131n tepkisi de unutulmamal\u0131: Kal\u0131c\u0131 toparlanma beklentileri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yaln\u0131zca bir-iki olumlu veri sonras\u0131nda s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi. Bu kez fark, k\u00fcresel teknoloji ve yapay zek\u00e2 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi d\u0131\u015f talep. Bu d\u0131\u015f destek, \u00c7in teknoloji hisselerindeki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00f6nceki denemelere g\u00f6re daha kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131labilir.\n\n<h3>Yuan ve Faizlere Etkisi<\/h3>\nEnflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) sert faiz indirimleri yapma aciliyetini azaltabilir. Bu da yuan\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha sa\u011flam durmas\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/CNH kurunda para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money call; mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, prim geliri i\u00e7in sat\u0131lan opsiyon) gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; hedef, kurda yatay seyir veya yuan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in\u2019de T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,2\u2019den %1\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve \u00dcFE d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ay Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131, emtia ve ticaret canlanmas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir; yuan g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29798\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}