{"id":29790,"date":"2026-03-06T21:58:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T21:58:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ingden-ewa-manthey-orta-dogu-catismasindaki-tirmanis-arz-risklerinin-artmasiyla-aluminyumu-4-000-dolar-tonun-uzerine-tasidi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T21:58:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T21:58:40","slug":"ingden-ewa-manthey-orta-dogu-catismasindaki-tirmanis-arz-risklerinin-artmasiyla-aluminyumu-4-000-dolar-tonun-uzerine-tasidi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ingden-ewa-manthey-orta-dogu-catismasindaki-tirmanis-arz-risklerinin-artmasiyla-aluminyumu-4-000-dolar-tonun-uzerine-tasidi\/","title":{"rendered":"ING\u2019den Ewa Manthey: Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, arz risklerinin artmas\u0131yla al\u00fcminyumu 4.000 dolar\/tonun \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskinin artmas\u0131, ING\u2019nin al\u00fcminyum fiyat tahminlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesine neden oldu. ING, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 aksama senaryosu ortaya koydu. Senaryolardan birinde fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine ton ba\u015f\u0131na 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan talebin (t\u00fcketimin) gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nK\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesi, k\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9\u2019unu yap\u0131yor ve uluslararas\u0131 ticarete konu olan metalin daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. B\u00f6lge, k\u00fcresel al\u00fcmina (al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan ara hammadde) \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ve boksit (al\u00fcminyum cevheri) \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019ini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor. Bu nedenle izabe\/birincil \u00fcretim tesisleri (smelter), ithal hammaddelere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131.\n\nSenaryo 1, yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k k\u0131sa bir sevkiyat aksamas\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor. \u0130hracat gecikiyor, bir miktar metal tesis sahas\u0131nda birikiyor ve Qatalum\u2019da kontroll\u00fc duru\u015f (planl\u0131 \u00fcretim durdurma) sonras\u0131 \u00fcretim yava\u015f toparlan\u0131yor.\n\nSenaryo 2, sevkiyat k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrmesini varsay\u0131yor. Deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan arz (seaborne supply) daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor ve hammadde teslimatlar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00fcretim kesintileri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nSenaryo 3, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 ay s\u00fcren daha a\u011f\u0131r bir aksamay\u0131 varsay\u0131yor. ING, \u00fcretim kayb\u0131, sevk edilemeyip \u201cyolda\/elde kalan\u201d metal (stranded metal) ve daha geni\u015f lojistik sorunlar\u0131n birle\u015fiminin piyasadaki bulunabilirli\u011fi azaltabilece\u011fini, bunun da fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine ton ba\u015f\u0131na 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, kritik bir deniz ge\u00e7i\u015f hatt\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tehdit ederken al\u00fcminyumda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. LME (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131) lisansl\u0131 depo stoklar\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 485 bin tona inmi\u015fken, olas\u0131 bir arz aksamas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olur. LME spot (hemen teslim) fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 3.150 dolar seviyesinde olmas\u0131 da bu artan endi\u015feyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\nK\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesi k\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9\u2019undan sorumlu; ancak buradaki tesisler ithal al\u00fcmina ve boksit girdilerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ciddi bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sevkiyattaki her gecikme \u00fcretimin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini do\u011frudan riske at\u0131yor. Bunun ilk i\u015faretleri, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde navlun sigortas\u0131 (ta\u015f\u0131ma sigortas\u0131) maliyetleri y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nH\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda LME al\u00fcminyum vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanma hakk\u0131) almak temkinli bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu y\u00f6ntem, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 4.000 dolar\/tonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r aksama senaryosuna yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, bu pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7ok k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.\n\n2022\u2019deki Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, arz endi\u015feleriyle al\u00fcminyumun ton ba\u015f\u0131na 4.070 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u00fcretimin belirli b\u00f6lgelerde yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131, benzer hatta daha sert bir \u201clojistik bo\u011faz\u201d (dar ge\u00e7it\/\u015fi\u015fe boynu) riski yarat\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en ay bo\u011faz yak\u0131n\u0131nda bildirilen deniz kuvvetleri s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeleri de bu benzerli\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki risk al\u00fcminyumu u\u00e7urur mu? ING, K\u00f6rfez sevkiyat aksamas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131yla arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, LME stoklar\u0131 dipteyken fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli 4.000 $\/tonu a\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29790\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}