{"id":29781,"date":"2026-03-06T18:01:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocak-ayinda-abdnin-perakende-satislar-kontrol-grubu-03e-yukselerek-onceki-01-seviyesinden-toparlandi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:01:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:01:12","slug":"ocak-ayinda-abdnin-perakende-satislar-kontrol-grubu-03e-yukselerek-onceki-01-seviyesinden-toparlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocak-ayinda-abdnin-perakende-satislar-kontrol-grubu-03e-yukselerek-onceki-01-seviyesinden-toparlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ocak ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar Kontrol Grubu %0,3\u2019e y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki %-0,1 seviyesinden toparland\u0131."},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de kontrol grubu perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ocakta %0,3 artt\u0131. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde %\u20110,1 olmu\u015ftu.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim, kontrol grubu g\u00f6stergesinde ayl\u0131k bazda daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6nceki veriye g\u00f6re 0,4 puan yukar\u0131 geldi.\n\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Fed Politikas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Anlam\u0131<\/h3>\nOcak ay\u0131 t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 verisi beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. Bu tablo, 2025 sonuna do\u011fru olu\u015fan \u201cekonomi yava\u015fl\u0131yor\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketici, ekonominin tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da bu y\u0131l olas\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve kapsam\u0131n\u0131 yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nEnflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 seyri de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. \u015eubat 2026 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisinde \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,2 ile y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Buna ek olarak i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: Ge\u00e7en ay 250 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu ortamda Fed\u2019in acele etmemesi daha olas\u0131 hale geliyor; yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimali azal\u0131yor.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim, fed funds vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentilerin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) netle\u015fiyor. May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ay \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 iken \u015fimdi %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz hareketlerine g\u00f6re de\u011ferlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (ABD\u2019de gecelik faiz oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi gerekir.\n\nHisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda, daha sa\u011flam ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bu da S&#038;P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 alan b\u0131rakabilir. Geni\u015f endekslerde \u201czarar-kesim alt\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) sat\u0131p prim toplamak, sert bir yava\u015flama korkusunun azalmas\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir strateji olabilir. T\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim ve perakende gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 alanlar) sekt\u00f6r opsiyonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyre dikkat edilebilir.\n\n<h3>Volatilite ve Dalgal\u0131 Piyasa \u0130\u00e7in Konumlanma<\/h3>\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nceki beklentileri ile gelen veriler aras\u0131ndaki fark k\u0131sa vadede dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. VIX (S&#038;P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, yani beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 2025 sonundaki dip seviyelerinden yukar\u0131 geldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat hareketlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin ana endekslerde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131narak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklentisine oynanan strateji) kullan\u0131labilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de kontrol grubu perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ocakta %0,3 artt\u0131: t\u00fcketim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, \u201cyava\u015flama\u201d tezi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in acele faiz indirimi ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, may\u0131s olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019ten %40 alt\u0131na geriledi; volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29781\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}