{"id":29777,"date":"2026-03-06T17:58:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T17:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/subatta-abdde-u6-eksik-istihdam-orani-onceki-8-seviyesinden-eksi-6ya-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T17:58:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T17:58:09","slug":"subatta-abdde-u6-eksik-istihdam-orani-onceki-8-seviyesinden-eksi-6ya-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/subatta-abdde-u6-eksik-istihdam-orani-onceki-8-seviyesinden-eksi-6ya-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eubat\u2019ta ABD\u2019de U6 eksik istihdam oran\u0131 \u00f6nceki %8 seviyesinden eksi %6\u2019ya geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de U6 eksik istihdam oran\u0131 (i\u015fsizlere ek olarak, istemeden yar\u0131 zamanl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar ile i\u015f aramay\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f ama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131r ki\u015fileri de i\u00e7eren geni\u015f i\u015fsizlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) \u015fubatta geriledi. Oran %8\u2019den -%6\u2019ya indi.\n\n\u015eubat U6 verisinin benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f \u015fekilde -%6 gelmesi, ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu sonu\u00e7, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u201d oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir ve ekonominin kapasitesinin \u00fczerinde \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131na (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 talep nedeniyle fiyat ve \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyal verir. Bunun ilk etkisi, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 (\u00fccret enflasyonu: \u00fccretlerin genel fiyatlardan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi) risk olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p temel senaryoya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesidir.\n\n<h3>Fed\u2019in Tepkisi<\/h3>\nABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), fiyat istikrar\u0131 (enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma) konusundaki g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini korumak i\u00e7in sert ad\u0131mlar atmak zorunda kalabilir. 2022-2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde (para politikas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d), enflasyon %9,1 ile zirvedeyken enflasyonu bast\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 75 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; 1 bp = %0,01) birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu yeni i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verisi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha da sert bir tepki ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nBizce yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131. Bu, SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizine dayal\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli referans oran; futures: gelecekteki fiyat \u00fczerinden al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak ve faiz swaplar\u0131nda (swap: de\u011fi\u015fken faiz ile sabit faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6demek anlam\u0131na gelir. Ama\u00e7, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131n\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli devlet tahvili faizleri) belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 gitmesini beklemektir. Piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir.\n\nHisse piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski ve oynakl\u0131kta (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f sinyalidir. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda, \u00f6zellikle Nasdaq 100\u2019de sert sat\u0131\u015f beklenebilir. SPX ve NDX gibi ana endekslerde put opsiyonu almak (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/\u00e7\u0131kar sa\u011flayan opsiyon) veya VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu almak (VIX: S&#038;P 500 oynakl\u0131k endeksi) riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ortam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir pozisyon alma yoludur; benzer politika \u015foklar\u0131nda VIX tarihsel olarak 30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\n\nFed\u2019in bu kadar s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015fu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Bu, 2022\u2019deki tabloya benzer: ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyrini g\u00f6steren endeks) o y\u0131lki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (g\u00fcvercin: faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda uzun pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n\nAna risk, Fed\u2019in ekonomiyi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak derin resesyona (ekonomik daralma) s\u00fcr\u00fcklemesi gibi ciddi bir politika hatas\u0131d\u0131r. Yak\u0131n vadede daha y\u00fcksek faiz ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131ksa da y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde sert b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. Bu veri, \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ard\u0131ndan sert daralma\u201d d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (boom-bust: \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f, sonra keskin gerileme) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Temel Risk Senaryosu<\/h3>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok U6: ABD\u2019de geni\u015f i\u015fsizlik \u015fubatta -%6\u2019ya indi; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131. Bu Fed\u2019e agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali, k\u0131sa vade faizleri y\u00fckseli\u015f, Nasdaq riski, VIX s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29777\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}