{"id":29768,"date":"2026-03-06T14:57:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T14:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/avrupa-seansinda-xag-usd-yatirimcilarin-subat-ayi-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisini-beklemesiyle-8280-dolar-civarinda-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T14:57:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T14:57:16","slug":"avrupa-seansinda-xag-usd-yatirimcilarin-subat-ayi-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisini-beklemesiyle-8280-dolar-civarinda-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/avrupa-seansinda-xag-usd-yatirimcilarin-subat-ayi-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisini-beklemesiyle-8280-dolar-civarinda-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa seans\u0131nda XAG\/USD, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u015eubat ay\u0131 ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisini beklemesiyle 82,80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 13:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni istihdam verisi) \u00f6ncesinde 82,80 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, veriden ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in sinyal ar\u0131yor.\n\n\u015eubat ay\u0131nda ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da daha istikrarl\u0131 bir para politikas\u0131na kayd\u0131. CME FedWatch (faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinden t\u00fcretilen olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi), Temmuz\u2019da faizin sabit tutulma ihtimalini %51,7 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %25,3\u2019t\u00fc.\n\n

Temel \u0130stihdam Beklentileri<\/h3>\nNFP\u2019nin 59 bin yeni istihdam g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor; Ocak ay\u0131nda 130 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %4,3, Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar\u2019\u0131n (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 ile yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n\u0130stihdam ve \u00fccretler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f faiz geliri sa\u011flamaz. ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7eren Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara talebi destekliyor.\n\nYaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 83,21 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: son 20 g\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131na daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi izleyen g\u00f6sterge) 84,80 dolar seviyesinde. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: 0\u2013100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte momentum g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 40,00\u201360,00 band\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 84,80 ve 90,00 dolar; destek 82,00, ard\u0131ndan 78,00 dolar. Daha sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte 70\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n\n

Fed Politikas\u0131 ve Risk Ortam\u0131<\/h3>\nFed\u2019in duru\u015fu g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck bask\u0131 unsuru olmaya devam ediyor; Temmuz\u2019da faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed\u2019in 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde faizi sabit tuttu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bug\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Verinin 59 bin beklentisinin belirgin \u00fczerinde gelmesi durumunda, 78,00 dolar deste\u011fini hedeflemek i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Son raporlara g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sigorta primleri son bir ayda %5 y\u00fckseldi; bu art\u0131\u015f gerilimin do\u011frudan sonucu ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan sat\u0131\u015f) daha riskli hale getiriyor ve 80,00 dolar alt\u0131ndaki bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak put sat\u0131p prim toplama) prim geliri i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yol olabilir.\n\nAyr\u0131ca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi talebi uzun vadeli destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Global Solar Council\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en ayki raporu, 2025\u2019te kurulumlar\u0131n %22 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti; bu e\u011filim g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcketimini y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed kaynakl\u0131 sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi, 90,00 dolar direncine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirebilir.\n\nTeknik olarak fiyat bir bant i\u00e7inde. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 84,80 dolarda ve net bir y\u00f6n vermiyor. 82,00 taban\u0131 ile 90,00 diren\u00e7 alan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu kanal, \u201ciron condor\u201d (dar bantta prim toplamaya y\u00f6nelik, iki tarafl\u0131 opsiyon stratejisi) i\u00e7in uygun. 90,00 \u00fcst\u00fcnde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha uzakta olan) call spread ve 82,00 alt\u0131nda out-of-the-money put spread satarak, fiyat \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bantta kal\u0131rsa zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin erimesi) getiri hedeflenebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NFP \u00f6ncesi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 83 dolar civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: ADP s\u00fcrpriziyle Temmuz\u2019da \u201cfaiz sabit\u201d ihtimali %51,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri bask\u0131 yaratabilir; jeopolitik riskler destek. Teknik bant: 82\u201390.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29768\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}