{"id":29765,"date":"2026-03-06T13:58:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T13:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-volkmar-baur-sgpye-gore-eur-usd-dusuk-degerli-euronun-yuksek-ticaret-agirlikli-seviyesi-dolarin-zayifligini-maskeliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T13:58:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T13:58:10","slug":"commerzbanktan-volkmar-baur-sgpye-gore-eur-usd-dusuk-degerli-euronun-yuksek-ticaret-agirlikli-seviyesi-dolarin-zayifligini-maskeliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-volkmar-baur-sgpye-gore-eur-usd-dusuk-degerli-euronun-yuksek-ticaret-agirlikli-seviyesi-dolarin-zayifligini-maskeliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Volkmar Baur: SGP\u2019ye g\u00f6re EUR\/USD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli; euronun y\u00fcksek ticaret-a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 seviyesi dolar\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 maskeliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Euro, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi (PPP: paran\u0131n \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ne kadar mal ve hizmet alabildi\u011fine g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) baz\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 (Euro\u2019nun bir\u00e7ok para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini, d\u0131\u015f ticaretteki paylar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm, EUR\/USD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa bile y\u00fcksek kalabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Euro\u2019yu tek bir para birimiyle de\u011fil, \u00e7ok say\u0131da para birimiyle k\u0131yaslar.\n\nECB\u2019nin ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Euro endeksi 40 para birimini kaps\u0131yor ve son haftalarda gerilese de 28 Ocak\u2019taki t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesine h\u00e2l\u00e2 yak\u0131n. Bu da endeksi son 25 y\u0131l\u0131n band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst ucunda tutuyor.\n\n

De\u011ferinin Alt\u0131nda Kalan Asya Para Birimlerinin Rol\u00fc<\/h3>\nDe\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda kalan (piyasa kurunun, ekonomik temellere g\u00f6re \u201colmas\u0131 gerekenden\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131) Asya para birimleri, ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Euro\u2019yu yukar\u0131 itebilir. \u00c7in yuan\u0131 (Renminbi\/RMB) ve Tayvan dolar\u0131 (TWD), ECB\u2019nin ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 sepetinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %17\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nRMB ve TWD\u2019nin \u201cciddi bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda\u201d oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu durum hesaplama gere\u011fi ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Euro\u2019yu otomatik olarak yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. Verilen tahmine g\u00f6re, bu iki para birimi de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda olmasayd\u0131 Euro yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 daha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcnecekti.\n\nBu etki olmasa bile ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Euro, 25 y\u0131ll\u0131k band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst ucunda kal\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak mevcut endeks seviyesinin ima etti\u011finden daha az g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olurdu.\n\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Politika Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n\u00c7in yuan\u0131 ve Tayvan dolar\u0131 endeks \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam ederek, Euro\u2019nun ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011ferini yapay bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, ihracat\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in kontroll\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131 (kurun tamamen serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmay\u0131p, a\u015famal\u0131 ve y\u00f6netilen bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131) politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u015eubat 2026 sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131 ve beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Asya para birimlerindeki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, EUR\/USD zorlan\u0131rken bile ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Euro\u2019yu yukar\u0131da tutuyor.\n\nBu sapma \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB\u2019ye politika alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeks tarihsel olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ECB, \u201czay\u0131f para birimi\u201d sorunuyla m\u00fccadele etmek zorunda daha az kal\u0131yor. Bu da Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu \u015eubat ay\u0131nda %2,2\u2019ye gerilerken ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015f (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 desteklemeyi \u00f6nceleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. \u015eubat 2026 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi 230 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahin bir patikada (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faizleri korumaya yatk\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m) tutuyor. \u0130steksiz bir ECB ile kararl\u0131 bir Fed aras\u0131ndaki artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc besleyen ana unsur. 2014-2015 gibi d\u00f6nemler, bu t\u00fcr ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n paritelerde uzun s\u00fcren hareketler yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201ct\u00fcretilmi\u015f\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu tablo, EUR\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor. Euro\u2019da sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak veya maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satarak kurulan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131) kurmak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon al\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcrerse, 2025 sonundaki seviyeler olan 1,0500 b\u00f6lgesi orta vadede makul bir hedef olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nBu uyumsuzluk ayr\u0131ca EUR\/USD\u2019de ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeks nedeniyle rehavete kap\u0131labilir. Oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 i\u015flemler, \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun vadeli straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklentisi) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vade ile farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; daha ucuz ama daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gerektiren yap\u0131) almak, piyasa oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evirdi\u011finde sert bir harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Bu da 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki yatay seyrin k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131r.\n\nBu ortam, g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemleri (iki pozisyonu birlikte kurup aradaki farktan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) i\u00e7in de uygun. Dolar\u0131n \u00f6zel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc izole etmek ad\u0131na EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyon al\u0131rken, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Euro\u2019yu ECB\u2019den daha g\u00fcvercin bir merkez bankas\u0131na sahip bir para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) ta\u015f\u0131mak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Euro\u2019daki genel zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan ziyade dolar\u0131n g\u00f6reli \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefler.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Euro\/dolar PPP\u2019ye g\u00f6re ucuz, fakat ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeks zirveye yak\u0131n: yuan ve Tayvan dolar\u0131 de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a Euro \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ECB\u2019ye alan, Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,05 hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29765\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}