{"id":29762,"date":"2026-03-06T12:58:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/deutsche-bank-abdde-subat-ayi-tarim-disi-istihdam-artisinin-30-bine-yavaslamasini-issizlik-oraninin-ise-43te-sabit-kalmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T12:58:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:58:44","slug":"deutsche-bank-abdde-subat-ayi-tarim-disi-istihdam-artisinin-30-bine-yavaslamasini-issizlik-oraninin-ise-43te-sabit-kalmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/deutsche-bank-abdde-subat-ayi-tarim-disi-istihdam-artisinin-30-bine-yavaslamasini-issizlik-oraninin-ise-43te-sabit-kalmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank, ABD\u2019de \u015eubat ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 30 bin\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank ekonomistleri, ABD\u2019de \u015eubat ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisinin 30 bin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu, Ocak\u2019taki 130 binin alt\u0131nda. Ocak verisi 13 ay\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fiydi.\n\nBanka, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %4,3\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak, ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201cn\u00fcfus kontrol\u201d g\u00fcncellemelerini (anket a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n n\u00fcfus tahminlerine g\u00f6re yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131) uygulayacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, veride hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nHaftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta biten haftada 213 bin oldu; piyasa beklentisi 215 bindi. Haberde ayr\u0131ca Fed Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Bowman\u2019\u0131n, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u201cistikrara kavu\u015fma\u201d i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair de\u011ferlendirmesine de at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nNot: Haberde, metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlendi\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n\u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 30 bine kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesi, piyasan\u0131n izledi\u011fi ana konu. Ocak\u2019taki 130 bin seviyesine g\u00f6re bu sert yava\u015flama, piyasa belirsizli\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan, i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 213 binle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131, temel verilerin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil g\u00f6rece istikrar sinyali verdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nOlas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle BLS\u2019nin n\u00fcfus kontrollerinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler nedeniyle, \u201cvolatilite\u201d (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) sat\u0131n alman\u0131n temkinli bir strateji olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. S&#038;P 500 \u00fczerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejileri (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak, piyasa hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse etsin kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen kurgu) iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketten fayda sa\u011flayabilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi VIX (piyasada beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) 14 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama bekleniyor.\n\n\u0130stihdam\u0131n 30 bin tahminine yak\u0131n ya da daha zay\u0131f gelmesi, Fed\u2019in yazdan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair fiyatlamalar\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar), Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 fiyatl\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f bir rapor, bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir; bu da faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini daha hareketli bir i\u015flem alan\u0131 h\u00e2line getirir.\n\nMan\u015fetin \u00f6tesinde \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bakmak gerekiyor. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar, Fed i\u00e7in enflasyonun \u00f6nemli girdilerinden biri. Piyasa beklentisi ayl\u0131k %0,2\u2019lik \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 art\u0131\u015f. B\u00f6yle bir sonu\u00e7, s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fcklemedi\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir. Ocak T\u00dcFE verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, zay\u0131f \u00fccret verisi Fed\u2019in \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha temkinli\/indirime daha yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015f sergilemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\n2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ikinci yar\u0131da istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ortalama 80 bin civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Ocak\u2019taki 130 binlik sonu\u00e7, istatistiksel olarak \u201cayk\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer\u201d (genel e\u011filimden belirgin sapma) gibi duruyor; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bu tarihsel e\u011filim, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011fu ve pandemi \u00f6ncesi normale yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Deutsche Bank, ABD \u015eubat tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 30 bin bekliyor; i\u015fsizlik %4,3. BLS n\u00fcfus revizyonu s\u00fcrpriz yaratabilir. Zay\u0131f veri, Haziran faiz indirimi ve VIX\/opsiyon volatilitesini s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29762\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}